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Month: February 2017

Betting on whether or not Jeremy Hunt will be Health Secretary on the 1st of January 2018

Betting on whether or not Jeremy Hunt will be Health Secretary on the 1st of January 2018

But is there another Jeremy Hunt bet you should be making? William Hill have a market up whether Jeremy Hunt will be Health Secretary on the 1st of January 2018. I think taking the 2/5 on him being Health Secretary on the 1st of January 2018 is the best option. Here’s why you’ll be getting a 40% return in less than ten months. One of the things to take from the Copeland by-election is that Labour’s attempts to use the…

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77% of non Labour voters say Labour has the wrong leader and 73% say Labour has the wrong policies

77% of non Labour voters say Labour has the wrong leader and 73% say Labour has the wrong policies

Some truly damning @ComResPolls polling for Corbyn and it contains some worrying polling for Labour too. https://t.co/0S4xgZYGw4 pic.twitter.com/ch34ZuPFXS — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 25, 2017 This poll, like the result in Copeland, is a harbinger of a truly awful general election result for Labour. When will Corbyn take responsibility? ComRes have conducted a poll for The Sunday Mirror, and if you’re Jeremy Corbyn or a Labour supporter it makes me for painful reading, the poll shows A damning poll after Labour’s…

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Ahead of tomorrow night’s Oscars Roger’s annual assessment & predictions

Ahead of tomorrow night’s Oscars Roger’s annual assessment & predictions

As many PBers will attest his guide’s been on the money in the past 2017 Oscars. They say when things aren’t going well the Oscars cheer themselves up by turning to fantasy. Enter the musical La La Land with a record 14 nominations. Cheesy and cheerful it might take your mind off Trump for a couple of hours but sadly the memory of it will disappear long before he does. Best Picture: Arrival, Fences, Hackshaw Ridge, Hell or High Water,…

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The dark cloud on Labour’s horizon: total wipeout

The dark cloud on Labour’s horizon: total wipeout

Just where is Labour’s floor for 2020? One of the best political tips of the 2015 general election was to back Labour for 0-5 seats in Scotland. When William Hill first put the market up – after the independence referendum – they marked that outcome at no less than 125/1. (I apologise for not being able to namecheck the PBer who tipped the bet; I forget who it was.) That price was a testament to the inertia of thinking as…

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During February the Tories have defended NINE local by-elections – they only managed to retain TWO

During February the Tories have defended NINE local by-elections – they only managed to retain TWO

Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Summary : February 2017 February local by election aggregate % vote shares with changes on last time CON 24%-5 LAB 24%-5 LD 28%+18 UKIP 9%-6 OTH 9%+3 Liberal Democrats 7,162 votes (28% +18% on last time) winning 7 seats (+4 seats on last time) Labour 6,305 votes (24% -5% on last time) winning 5 seats (+1 seat on last time) Conservatives 6,255 votes (24% -5% on last time) winning 2 seats (-7 seats on last time)…

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Copeland and Stoke-on-Trent Central: What have we learned?

Copeland and Stoke-on-Trent Central: What have we learned?

It is in the nature of political junkies, like sharks, to be constantly moving forwards, and like goldfish, to be constantly forgetting what has just happened.  We should try to do better.  In the wake of two extraordinary by-elections we should reflect on their implications.  Because, as it happens this time, their implications are manifold. The Conservatives did incredibly well This is one of those rare occasions where the media have actually underplayed something.  The Conservatives’ victory in Copeland is…

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If UKIP can’t crack FPTP soon it’ll find itself almost without elected reps when current MEP terms end

If UKIP can’t crack FPTP soon it’ll find itself almost without elected reps when current MEP terms end

Once again an election for a Westminster seat has highlighted the struggle UKIP has with first past the post elections. Even though it was placed third in terms of national vote share at GE2015 it only managed one of the 650 MPs. That was, of course, Carswell’s Clacton seat which he’d won in the 2014 by election when he’d stood as a defector incumbent. Getting to be top dog in one of the Westminster seats requires a very different approach…

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If Labour don’t take the lead in the polls, is that how John McDonnell topples Jeremy Corbyn?

If Labour don’t take the lead in the polls, is that how John McDonnell topples Jeremy Corbyn?

Is this how John McDonnell topples Corbyn? If Corbyn doesn't improve in the poll. From earlier on this month. https://t.co/gPLPTnD88h pic.twitter.com/SiLovgH2IA — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 24, 2017 If Corbyn is toppled will it be one of his inner circle that wields the dagger? Earlier on this month John McDonnell gave an interview in which he said the polls will reverse in the next 12 months. We’ve already seen articles saying that McDonnell is taking over. If McDonnell feels that Labour…

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