Archive for February, 2017

h1

If Jeremy Corbyn wants to see Labour humiliated at a general election he will continue as Labour leader

Friday, February 24th, 2017

But this is his response to tonight’s results.

TSE



h1

If UKIP can’t win in the capital of Brexit then just where can they win without defector-incumbents?

Friday, February 24th, 2017

Meanwhile over in Copeland, the Tories are going postal.

TSE



h1

Expectations management or the harbinger of a truly terrible night for Labour?

Thursday, February 23rd, 2017

But an interesting tweet from an anti-Corbyn MP

TSE



h1

Mega By-Election Week (Day Two: Take Two) : February 23rd 2017

Thursday, February 23rd, 2017

Copeland Parliamentary by-election (Lab defence, caused by resignation of sitting member)
Result at last general election (2015): Labour 16,750 (42%), Conservative 14,186 (36%), United Kingdom Independence Party 6,148 (16%), Liberal Democrat 1,368 (3%), Green Party 1,179 (3%)
EU Referendum Result (estimate): REMAIN 40.15% LEAVE 59.85%
Candidates duly nominated: Michael Guest (Ind), Rebecca Hanson (Lib Dem), Trudy Harrison (Con), Ray Ivinson (Ind), Jack Lennox (Green), Fiona Mills (UKIP), Gillian Troughton (Lab)
Weather at close of polls: Whitehaven Cloudy, but dry 5°C, Keswick Heavy Rain 3°C
Estimate (based on historical trends): Labour HOLD on a swing of 1% from Con to Lab

Stoke on Trent Central Parliamentary by-election (Lab defence, caused by resignation of sitting member)
Result at last general election (2015): Labour 12,220 (39%), United Kingdom Independence Party 7,041 (23%), Conservative 7,008 (23%), Independent 2,120 (7%), Liberal Democrat 1,296 (4%), Green Party 1,123 (4%), Other Parties 276 (1%)
EU Referendum Result (estimate): REMAIN 34.98% LEAVE 65.02%
Candidates duly nominated: Mohammed Akram (Ind), Zulfiqar Ali (Lib Dem), Jack Brereton (Con), The Incredible Flying Brick (Loony), Adam Colclough (Green), Godfrey Davies (Christian People’s Alliance), Barbara Fielding (Ind), David Furness (BNP), Paul Nuttall (UKIP), Gareth Snell (Lab)
Weather at close of polls: Light Rain 4°C
Estimate (based on historical trends): Labour HOLD on a swing of 1% from Lab to Con

Tonight’s local elections

Chigwell Village on Epping Forest (Con defence, resignation of sitting member)
Result of council at last election (2016): Conservatives 35, Ratepayers 13, Independents 3, Liberal Democrats 3, Green Party 2, United Kingdom Independence Party 2 (Conservative majority of 12)
Result of ward at last election (2014): Conservative 682 (62%), United Kingdom Independence Party 187 (17%), Labour 123 (11%), Green Party 63 (6%), Liberal Democrat 38 (4%)
EU Referendum Result: REMAIN 28,676 (37%) LEAVE 48,176 (63%) on a turnout of 77%
Candidates duly nominated: Joanne Alexander-Sefre (Lib Dem), Darshan Singh Sunger (Con)
Weather at close of polls: Cloudy but dry, 5°C
Estimate: Too close to call

Barton on Kettering (Ind defence, elected as Conservative)
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 26, Labour 9, Independent 1 (Conservative majority of 16)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 1,660, 1,319 (49%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 791 (23%)
Labour 683, 590 (20%)
Green Party 244 (7%)
EU Referendum Result: REMAIN 21,030 (39%) LEAVE 32,877 (61%) on a turnout of 76%
Candidates duly nominated: Robert Clements (UKIP), Andrew Dutton (Lib Dem), Dianne Miles-Zanger (Con), Rob Reeves (Green)
Weather at the close of polls: Cloudy but dry, 5°C
Estimate: Conservative HOLD

Charterlands on South Hams (Con defence, resignation of sitting member)
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 25, Green Party 3, Liberal Democrats 2, Labour 1 (Conservative majority of 19)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Conservative 1,092 (64%), Green Party 330 (20%), Independent 274 (16%)
EU Referendum Result: REMAIN 29,308 (53%) LEAVE 26,142 (47%) on a turnout of 80%
Candidates duly nominated: Jonathan Bell (Con), Janet Chapman (Green), Elizabeth Huntley (Lib Dem), David Trigger (Lab)
Weather at close of polls: Clear, 5°C
Estimate: Conservative HOLD

An apology
Deja Vu : A Discussion
I wish to apologise to any members who may be experiencing a case of deja vu, that strange sensation that a person has lived through something before, this was due to a misunderstanding by myself that these by-elections listed above would be happening yesterday evening. This was a mistake on my part and I hope that members will not hold it against me

Compiled by Harry Hayfield



h1

Chances are that following the betting on by-election days won’t tell you anything and could be costly

Thursday, February 23rd, 2017

The final 12 hours of betting on Richmond Park

Above is a chart showing the Betfair exchange prices on the day of December’s Richmond Park by-election. As can be seen those who were following the betting for their inspiration would have got it wrong until about 11:30 p.m.

At that point, it will be recalled, the TV news programmes started reporting that Labour campaigners were suggesting that the Lib Dems had gained the seat by majority of about 2000. As it turned out that was a slight overestimate but the prediction of which way was correct.

Those who had followed betting before that time and had assumed that somehow the market knew what was going on ended up losing money.

I publish this as a warning to punters betting on today’s by elections in Stoke central and Copeland. Nobody really will know anything until at least an hour after polls have closed at 10 o’clock.

The turnout figures could be a good pointer but early guesses and what they mean could be be misleading.

Longstanding PBers might recall the February 2006 Dunfermline by-election. The final price matched on Betfair seconds before the returning officer announced the result had LAB with an 83% chance. The red team lost.

Mike Smithson




h1

This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast: Looking at Mrs Thatcher & how LAB can re-engage with disaffected working class voters

Thursday, February 23rd, 2017

This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast is split into two parts:
 
In part one, Keiran is joined by the former Editor of the Sunday Telegraph, Daily Telegraph and Spectator Charles Moore. Charles is also the authorised biographer of former Conservative Prime Minister Lady Margaret Thatcher and still writes columns for the Telegraph and Spectator today. He spoke to Keiran to give his perspective on the recent Polling Matters / Opinium survey that showed Thatcher as the most popular PM of the past thirty years. Why does her legacy surpass that of her successors in the eyes of voters? How does Theresa May compare? Would Thatcher have voted Brexit and what should we make of the ‘fake news’ phenomenon?
 
In part two, Keiran is joined by Phil Burton-Cartledge. Phil is a lecturer in Sociology at the University of Derby and a Labour activist. He also runs the blog ‘All that is solid’. Phil joined Keiran to give his perspective on how Labour would do in today’s by-elections, what is coming up on the doorstep and how Labour can reengage with disaffected working class voters? He also gives a useful background on Stoke and some of the issues facing the city and the surrounding area.
 
Follow this week’s guests
 
@keiranpedley
 
@charleshmoore
 
@philbc3



h1

Mega By-Election Week (Day Two) plus a Copeland cartoon

Wednesday, February 22nd, 2017

Winklebury on Basingstoke and Deane (Con defence, resignation of sitting member)
Result: Labour 824 (62% +32%), Conservative 472 (35% -11%), Liberal Democrat 42 (3% -3%)
Labour GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 352 (27%) on a swing of 21.5% from Con to Lab

Chigwell Village on Epping Forest (Con defence, resignation of sitting member)
Result of council at last election (2016): Conservatives 35, Ratepayers 13, Independents 3, Liberal Democrats 3, Green Party 2, United Kingdom Independence Party 2 (Conservative majority of 12)
Result of ward at last election (2014): Conservative 682 (62%), United Kingdom Independence Party 187 (17%), Labour 123 (11%), Green Party 63 (6%), Liberal Democrat 38 (4%)
EU Referendum Result: REMAIN 28,676 (37%) LEAVE 48,176 (63%) on a turnout of 77%
Candidates duly nominated: Joanne Alexander-Sefre (Lib Dem), Darshan Singh Sunger (Con)
Weather at close of polls: Light Rain, 11°C
Estimate: Too close to call

Barton on Kettering (Ind defence, elected as Conservative)
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 26, Labour 9, Independent 1 (Conservative majority of 16)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 1,660, 1,319 (49%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 791 (23%)
Labour 683, 590 (20%)
Green Party 244 (7%)
EU Referendum Result: REMAIN 21,030 (39%) LEAVE 32,877 (61%) on a turnout of 76%
Candidates duly nominated: Robert Clements (UKIP), Andrew Dutton (Lib Dem), Dianne Miles-Zanger (Con), Rob Reeves (Green)
Weather at the close of polls: Heavy Rain, 10°C
Estimate: Conservative HOLD

Charterlands on South Hams (Con defence, resignation of sitting member)
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 25, Green Party 3, Liberal Democrats 2, Labour 1 (Conservative majority of 19)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Conservative 1,092 (64%), Green Party 330 (20%), Independent 274 (16%)
EU Referendum Result: REMAIN 29,308 (53%) LEAVE 26,142 (47%) on a turnout of 80%
Candidates duly nominated: Jonathan Bell (Con), Janet Chapman (Green), Elizabeth Huntley (Lib Dem), David Trigger (Lab)
Weather at close of polls: Cloudy, but dry, 10°C
Estimate: Conservative HOLD



h1

Applying huge governing party national poll leads has been a very poor guide to Westminster by-elections

Wednesday, February 22nd, 2017

Beckenham Nov 1997. (LAB polls leads 30%+)

Eddisbury Jul 1999 (LAB poll leads 20%+)

Kensington & Chelsea Nov 1999 (LAB poll leads 20%+)

Why the betting markets might be getting Stoke Central and more particularly Copeland wrong

Almost ever since the Copeland by-election was declared the Conservatives have been a very strong odds on favourites. As has been pointed out repeatedly for them to take a seat off Labour while being the governing party would be an extraordinary achievement and something that really hasn’t happened in modern times.

The last time that a governing party had constant double digit polls leads was the first Blair government from 1997 to 2001. During the Parliament the Tories defended four five seats, three of them which are listed above. It was the same pattern in Uxbridge at the start of the parliament. As can be seen the outcome was nothing like that which he Westminster opinion polls were projecting for the ensuing general election. Labour came nowhere near.

But the Tories did lose the other seat, Romsey, but that was to the Liberal Democrats and not LAB.

Historical precedents are there to be broken, of course, but I would be very surprised indeed if the Conservatives won Copeland tomorrow.

Mike Smithson