Browsed by
Month: February 2017

If Jeremy Corbyn wants to see Labour humiliated at a general election he will continue as Labour leader

If Jeremy Corbyn wants to see Labour humiliated at a general election he will continue as Labour leader

Comments 0 Comment

Tories GAIN Copeland. Surely Corbyn has to realise he is toxic with voters? pic.twitter.com/2Q29M0Z58y — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 24, 2017 Copeland, result:CON: 44.3% (+8.5)LAB: 37.3% (-4.9)LDEM: 7.2% (+3.8)UKIP: 6.5% (-9.0)IND: 2.6% (+2.6)GRN: 1.7% (-1.3) — Britain Elects (@britainelects) February 24, 2017 #Copeland declaration imminent. A reminder there's been nothing directly comparable to this since the 19th century https://t.co/he6JBa4Y8B pic.twitter.com/90mk2A7tFv — Number Cruncher Politics UK (@NCPoliticsUK) February 24, 2017 In Copeland, Labour came very close to saying vote for us or…

Read More Read More

If UKIP can’t win in the capital of Brexit then just where can they win without defector-incumbents?

If UKIP can’t win in the capital of Brexit then just where can they win without defector-incumbents?

Comments 0 Comment

Gareth Snell the embodiment of David Cameron's maxim about Twitter wins the Stoke by-election. Paul Nuttall loses in the capital of Brexit pic.twitter.com/NOeE2kJC79 — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 24, 2017 Stoke on Trent Central, result:LAB: 37.1% (-2.2)UKIP: 24.7% (+2.1)CON: 24.3% (+1.8)LDEM: 9.8% (+5.7)GRN: 1.4% (-2.2) — Britain Elects (@britainelects) February 24, 2017 Stoke is only the 6th time in a by election in England since 1970 that the government has seen their share of the vote rise – John Curtice —…

Read More Read More

Expectations management or the harbinger of a truly terrible night for Labour?

Expectations management or the harbinger of a truly terrible night for Labour?

Comments 0 Comment

Interesting via @AndrewSparrow https://t.co/pdMYYngJqi pic.twitter.com/Wb4kVE1qa1 — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 23, 2017 Chatter is Labour hold Stoke, Tories take Copeland but consensus so often wrong! results in a few hours that could change political mood — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) February 23, 2017 Looks like party estimates of 30% turnout in Stoke could come true. Utterly dire – and could swing the entire result. From today's WaughZone pic.twitter.com/8ZtAN6vVjl — Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) February 23, 2017 Latest Betfair odds implies UKIP have a…

Read More Read More

Mega By-Election Week (Day Two: Take Two) : February 23rd 2017

Mega By-Election Week (Day Two: Take Two) : February 23rd 2017

Comments 0 Comment

D-Day. The day Doris Day came to Copeland pic.twitter.com/Laa4WYkxVp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2017 Election Day selfie outside Nuttalls' 'house' in Penkhull. You have got to love whoever put this banner up #StokeCentral #stokebyelection pic.twitter.com/GnrM2bM0vc — Pete (@petergeorgeowen) February 23, 2017 Copeland Parliamentary by-election (Lab defence, caused by resignation of sitting member) Result at last general election (2015): Labour 16,750 (42%), Conservative 14,186 (36%), United Kingdom Independence Party 6,148 (16%), Liberal Democrat 1,368 (3%), Green Party 1,179 (3%)…

Read More Read More

Chances are that following the betting on by-election days won’t tell you anything and could be costly

Chances are that following the betting on by-election days won’t tell you anything and could be costly

Comments 0 Comment

The final 12 hours of betting on Richmond Park Above is a chart showing the Betfair exchange prices on the day of December’s Richmond Park by-election. As can be seen those who were following the betting for their inspiration would have got it wrong until about 11:30 p.m. At that point, it will be recalled, the TV news programmes started reporting that Labour campaigners were suggesting that the Lib Dems had gained the seat by majority of about 2000. As…

Read More Read More

This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast: Looking at Mrs Thatcher & how LAB can re-engage with disaffected working class voters

This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast: Looking at Mrs Thatcher & how LAB can re-engage with disaffected working class voters

Comments 0 Comment

This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast is split into two parts:   In part one, Keiran is joined by the former Editor of the Sunday Telegraph, Daily Telegraph and Spectator Charles Moore. Charles is also the authorised biographer of former Conservative Prime Minister Lady Margaret Thatcher and still writes columns for the Telegraph and Spectator today. He spoke to Keiran to give his perspective on the recent Polling Matters / Opinium survey that showed Thatcher as the most popular PM of…

Read More Read More

Mega By-Election Week (Day Two) plus a Copeland cartoon

Mega By-Election Week (Day Two) plus a Copeland cartoon

Comments 0 Comment

Winklebury on Basingstoke and Deane (Con defence, resignation of sitting member) Result: Labour 824 (62% +32%), Conservative 472 (35% -11%), Liberal Democrat 42 (3% -3%) Labour GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 352 (27%) on a swing of 21.5% from Con to Lab Chigwell Village on Epping Forest (Con defence, resignation of sitting member) Result of council at last election (2016): Conservatives 35, Ratepayers 13, Independents 3, Liberal Democrats 3, Green Party 2, United Kingdom Independence Party 2 (Conservative…

Read More Read More

Applying huge governing party national poll leads has been a very poor guide to Westminster by-elections

Applying huge governing party national poll leads has been a very poor guide to Westminster by-elections

Comments 0 Comment

Beckenham Nov 1997. (LAB polls leads 30%+) Eddisbury Jul 1999 (LAB poll leads 20%+) Kensington & Chelsea Nov 1999 (LAB poll leads 20%+) Why the betting markets might be getting Stoke Central and more particularly Copeland wrong Almost ever since the Copeland by-election was declared the Conservatives have been a very strong odds on favourites. As has been pointed out repeatedly for them to take a seat off Labour while being the governing party would be an extraordinary achievement and…

Read More Read More