Next leader to leave – William Hill 6/4 Nuttall (In from 9/4) 6/4 Corbyn 5/1 May 8/1 Sturgeon 12/1 Farron At the weekend I had a bet at 9/4 with William Hill that Paul Nuttall will be the next party leader to exit his post. That’s since tightened to 6/4 which still looks a good punt. Clearly amongst the other options Corbyn is most at risk but as we’ve seen he is a stubborn old man and the party rules…
What’s this going to do to the by elections? With 24 hours ago to the crucial by elections in Stoke central and Copeland and the Met Office has issued a warning about the weather tomorrow. As can be seen above things look as though they could be quite nasty and it’s hard to see how this will not impact on turnout. The idea that poor weather can cut the number of participants in elections has been knocked on the head…
This week will see six by-elections but not all on the same day. There is a by-election tonight, three tomorrow night and on Thursday two Parliamentary by-elections that may break a duck that has lasted anything from 35 years to 57 years and create a vacancy at the head of the Opposition. But first, as they say in all the great stage plays, we have the opening curtain Winklebury on Basingstoke and Deane (Con defence, resignation of sitting member) Result…
Corbyn is doing worse with older voters, and history shows older voters turn out to vote and are a growing demographic. A few weeks ago whilst looking at the polling entrails I was struck by how much of a lead with older voters Mrs May was developing over Jeremy Corbyn in the best Prime Minister polling. As we can see with the chart above, there’s a clear correlation with the older you get, the more you prefer Mrs May as…
An unlikely LAB hold in Darlington kept an unelectable leader in office So much has happened in the Stoke central by-election that it it looks set to take its place in by election history alongside what many regard as the most sensational of all, Darlington, in 1983. That took place exactly a month after the Bermondsey when Simon Hughes had an unlikely and still controversial win against LAB. The political atmosphere at the time, like today, was highly charged as…
Copeland gives a good demonstration of why governments so rarely gain by-elections A wet and windy Saturday in Copeland is neither the time nor place to be wearing £250 brogues, as one volunteer reporting for duty in Egremont discovered (he was later spotted sporting rather less stylish but more functional off-white trainers). I mention this not as advice – it’s too late for that – nor to poke fun at the volunteer, who shall remain nameless (it wasn’t me!), but…
Don Brind on the Blair intervention Like many 48 per centers I believe last year’s referendum victory for Leave was built on a mountain of mendacity, epitomised by that bus promising £350 million for the NHS. So it was good to hear Tony Blair declare, in his speech to Open Britain last week, that Brexit “will not mean more money for the NHS but less; actually it probably means a wholesale rebalancing of our healthcare towards one based on private…
The Mirror is reporting that Corbyn has commissioned a 10k sample poll to get views on his own future. It notes:- “Mr Corbyn is keeping the results of the extraordinary 10,000-person study secret from the rest of the shadow cabinet, and from senior staffers in Labour HQ. Only his closest ally, Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell , and his most senior political aides will be allowed to see the results of what is thought to be the biggest-ever opinion poll commissioned…