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Looking forward to the County Council Elections 2017

March 30th, 2017

With no by-elections tonight and five weeks until the local elections, I thought it might be an idea to have a look at how the counties (last elected in 2013) might go this time around. Of course, since that night we have had a large number of things happen, the first Conservative majority government since 1996, Milliband standing down and Corbyn getting elected as Labour leader (twice) and the small matter of an EU referendum, therefore I have had a look at the local by-elections held in county wards since the referendum and worked on the assumption that dependent on how that county voted at the referendum, the local by-elections will be indicative of the final result. Therefore I wish to present my forecast for the 2017 English County Council Elections

In the local by-elections, areas that voted REMAIN saw the following change:
Con -9%, Lab -4%, Lib Dem +12%, UKIP -12%, Greens 0%, Ind -10%, Others +23%
Where as areas that voted to LEAVE saw the following change:
Con +4%, Lab -4%, Lib Dem +7%, UKIP -9%, Greens +1%, Ind +4%, Others -3%
And tallied across England, this is what that produces

Counties with no boundary changes since 2013
Buckinghamshire (REMAIN): Con 38%, Lib Dem 32%, UKIP 17%, Lab 8%, Ind 4%, Green 2%, Others 0%
Forecast: Con 32, Lib Dem 15, Ind 2 (Con HOLD)
Cumbria (LEAVE): Con 36%, Lib Dem 26%, Lab 24%, UKIP 3%, Green 3%, Ind 6%, Others 2%
Forecast: Con 32, Lab 24, Lib Dem 22, Ind 6 (NOC, no change)
Derbyshire (LEAVE): Lab 37%, Con 33%, Lib Dem 15%, UKIP 10%, Green 2%, Ind 2%, Others 1%
Forecast: Con 34, Lab 23, Lib Dem 7 (Con GAIN from Lab)
Essex (LEAVE): Con 38%, Lib Dem 19%, UKIP 18%, Lab 12%, Green 6%, Others 6%, Ind 1%
Forecast: Con 47, Lib Dem 17, Lab 5, Green 2, Local Independents 2, Ratepayers 1, UKIP 1 (Con HOLD)
Norfolk (LEAVE): Con 37%, Lab 19%, Lib Dem 18%, UKIP 14%, Green 8%, Ind 4%, Others 0%
Forecast: Con 49, Lib Dem 15, Lab 12, Green 6, Ind 2 (Con GAIN from NOC)
North Yorkshire (LEAVE): Con 45%, Lib Dem 16%, Ind 14%, Lab 12%, UKIP 7%, Green 4%, Others 2%
Forecast: Con 42, Ind 13, Lib Dem 12, Lab 2, Lib 2, Green 1 (Con HOLD)
Northamptonshire (LEAVE): Con 41%, Lab 22%, Lib Dem 16%, UKIP 13%, Green 3%, Ind 3%, Others 2%
Forecast: Con 41, Lib Dem 9, Lab 4, Ind 2, Green 1 (Con HOLD)
Somerset (LEAVE): Con 39%, Lib Dem 33%, UKIP 11%, Lab 8%, Green 5%, Ind 4%, Others 0%
Forecast: Con 31, Lib Dem 19, Lab 3, Ind 2, UKIP 1 (Con HOLD)
Staffordshire (LEAVE): Con 40%, Lab 26%, UKIP 15%, Lib Dem 11%, Ind 5%, Green 2%, Others 1%
Forecast: Con 40, Lab 17, Lib Dem 4, Ind 1 (Con HOLD)
Suffolk (LEAVE): Con 39%, Lib Dem 18%, Lab 18%, UKIP 11%, Green 10%, Ind 4%
Forecast: Con 42, Lib Dem 13, Lab 12, Ind 5, Green 3 (Con HOLD)
Surrey (REMAIN): Con 34%, Lib Dem 31%, UKIP 14%, Lab 8%, Others 7%, Green 3%, Ind 3%
Forecast: Con 40, Lib Dem 28, Ratepayers 7, Green 2, Local Independents 2, Ind 1, Lab 1 (Con LOSS to NOC)
Worcestershire (LEAVE): Con 38%, Lab 21%, Lib Dem 15%, UKIP 11%, Green 6%, Others 6%, Ind 3%
Forecast: Con 34, Lab 10, Lib Dem 7, NHA 2, Green 1, Ind 1, Lib 1, Ratepayers 1 (Con HOLD)

Counties with boundary changes since 2013
Cambridgeshire (LEAVE): Con 37%, Lib Dem 28%, Lab 14%, UKIP 11%, Green 5%, Ind 4%, Others 1%
Devon (LEAVE): Con 39%, Lib Dem 23%, UKIP 14%, Lab 9%, Ind 8%, Green 7%, Others 0%
Dorset (LEAVE): Con 43%, Lib Dem 26%, UKIP 13%, Lab 9%, Green 5%, Ind 4%, Others 0%
East Sussex (REMAIN): Con 26%, Lib Dem 33%, UKIP 17%, Lab 13%, Ind 7%, Green 4%
Gloucestershire (LEAVE): Con 38%, Lib Dem 27%, Lab 14%, Green 8%, UKIP 7%, Ind 5%, Others 1%
Hampshire (LEAVE): Con 41%, Lib Dem 29%, UKIP 16%, Lab 7%, Green 4%, Ind 2%, Others 1%
Hertfordshire (LEAVE): Con 42%, Lib Dem 24%, Lab 17%, UKIP 9%, Green 5%, Ind 3%
Kent (LEAVE): Con 40%, UKIP 18%, Lib Dem 17%, Lab 16%, Green 5%, Others 3%, Ind 1%
Lancashire (LEAVE): Con 38%, Lab 32%, Lib Dem 15%, UKIP 6%, Green 4%, Ind 4%, Others 1%
Leicestershire (LEAVE): Con 44%, Lib Dem 24%, Lab 21%, UKIP 9%, Ind 2%, Others 0%
Lincolnshire (LEAVE): Con 40%, Lab 15%, UKIP 15%, Lib Dem 11%, Others 12%, Ind 7%
Nottinghamshire (LEAVE): Con 31%, Lab 31%, Lib Dem 18%, UKIP 9%, Others 5%, Green 3%, Ind 3%
Oxfordshire (REMAIN): Lib Dem 31%, Con 29%, Lab 21%, Green 10%, UKIP 5%, Ind 3%, Others 1%
Warwickshire (LEAVE): Con 40%, Lab 24%, Lib Dem 20%, Green 9%, Ind 5%, Others 2%, UKIP 0%
West Sussex (LEAVE): Con 42%, Lib Dem 21%, UKIP 20%, Lab 10%, Green 4%, Ind 3%

Unitary Authorities that used to be counties
Cornwall (LEAVE): Con 29%, Lib Dem 29%, Ind 22%, UKIP 6%, Others 6%, Lab 4%, Green 4%
Forecast: Lib Dem 51, Con 36, Ind 28, Mebynon Kernow 5, Green 3 (NOC, no change)
Durham (LEAVE): Lab 42%, Lib Dem 16%, Ind 14%, Con 13%, Others 13%, Green 3%, UKIP 0%
Forecast: Lab 58, Lib Dem 22, Local Independents 17, Ind 17, Con 12 (Lab LOSS to NOC)
Isle of Wight (LEAVE): Con 39%, Ind 31%, Lib Dem 12%, UKIP 12%, Lab 3%, Green 2%, Others 1%
Forecast: Con 18, Ind 12, Lib Dem 7, Green 1, Lab 1, Local Independent 1 (NOC, no change)
Northumberland (LEAVE): Con 35%, Lab 32%, Lib Dem 28%, Ind 3%, Green 2%, UKIP 0%
Forecast: Lab 26, Con 20, Lib Dem 19, Green 1, Ind 1 (NOC, no change)
Shropshire (LEAVE): Con 46%, Lib Dem 27%, Lab 13%, Ind 9%, Green 2%, UKIP 2%, Others 1%
Forecast: Con 40, Lib Dem 20, Ind 7, Lab 6, Green 1 (Con HOLD)
Wiltshire (LEAVE): Con 47%, Lib Dem 27%, Ind 11%, UKIP 6%, Lab 6%, Green 2%, Others 1%
Forecast: Con 56, Lib Dem 30, Ind 9, Lab 2, Green 1 (Con HOLD)

The next Thursday without any local by-elections will be on April 27th (a week before polling day) and there I will post my forecasts for the local elections in Wales (with seat forecasts) and Scotland (% share) and then on May 11th after the local elections we can all see how well (or badly) I did.

Harry Hayfield