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Flynn’s move looks dangerous for Trump and punters make it a 52% chance that the President won’t last the full term

March 31st, 2017

Time to bet on the President’s survival? Maybe. Maybe not

Until now I have steadfastly ignored the betting on how long Donald Trump will remain in the White House simply because my own personal feelings on this are strong and I know that that could affect my judgement.

But the latest news overnight about Trump’s former national Security adviser, Mike Flynn, suggests that things could start to get pretty rough for the President who has been in power for just over 2 months.

This is all about the possible links between the Trump and Russia and now Flynn’s lawyers have made it clear that he is ready to give evidence on the subject if he is offered immunity from prosecution.

That sounds quite ominous for the President but it’s hard to assess how much that puts his job in danger.

Alongside this the other big Trump story that won’t go away are his declining approval ratings which are far worse than any other president has experienced at this stage in his term.

The worry for the Republican party will be the midterm elections in 2018 when the last thing they want is for negative views of occupant of the White House to be impacting on their electoral chances when so much is at stake.

As a general rule in betting on how long politicians will last it is best to go with their survival. When Bill Clinton was facing impeachment there was a lively spread market on how many days his second term would last for. I bet on him surviving and that that proved to be very profitable.

So in spite of everything with Trump at the moment and I am keeping out of this market. That might change.

Mike Smithson