The latest French Presidential betting has Marine Le Pen with an 87% chance of making it to the final two

April 14th, 2017

But who will join her?

With the French presidential election moving into the final two weeks I thought it might be useful to look at the betting by concentrating on who will make it to the final two. That runoff election takes places a fortnight later on the Sunday after British locals.

There are lively betting markets on the first round of the election and I have taken the latest chances based on the Betfair Exchange for my chart above. These are expressed as a percentage.

Le Pen who has seen a decline in her opinion poll ratings over the past month is still a very strong favourite to make it to the run off. Whether she can win that is very much another matter and the polls suggests she cannot.

The battle between the other three is very very tight and things are very much within the polling margins of error with barely 4 or 5 percentage points cover all four in the race

My concern on Macron is that he does not have the established party organisation behind him and that might be crucial in terms of getting out the vote.

Fillon, who many regarded as damaged goods following the revelations about payments to his wife, has continued to poll strongly and is still up there. Given that only 3 months ago he was the strong favourite to win the presidency we cannot discount him yet. Then, of course, there has been the remarkable move of the far left contender, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who has seen a transformation of his position following strong TV debate performances.

Mike Smithson