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New YouGov poll carried out on Tuesday and Wednesday has CON lead down to 13%

May 18th, 2017

And Corbyn’s “Best PM ratings” continue to rise

With so many surveys coming out from so many firms at the moment a key factor is to look at the fieldwork dates. This latest one from YouGov was carried out on Tuesday and Wednesday and sees the Tory lead at its smallest in any poll from any pollster this month.

The LD share continues to tumble while the UKIP is double what it was at the weekend.

The fieldwork was carried out in the immediate aftermath of Labour’s manifesto launch which was dominating much of the broadcast coverage

    The usual caveat with all polls that seem against the general trend is that this is just one survey and we must wait to see if other firms report similar moves. Also a 13% CON lead is still huge and would give Mrs. May a very comfortable working majority.

Later today we have the first published poll of the month from Ipsos MORI – the firm which has been polling UK political opinion for longer than anybody else.

It will be interesting to see how the Commons seats spread betting markets react. Overnight there has been no new price fix but that will come during the morning.

Mike Smithson