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Month: June 2017

Local By-Election Review : June 2017 (post General Election)

Local By-Election Review : June 2017 (post General Election)

Dawdon on Durham (Lab defence) Result: Labour 693 (52% +6% on May 2017), Independent 633 (48%, no candidate in May 2017) Labour HOLD with a majority of 60 (4%) Hedge End and Grange Park on Eastleigh (Lib Dem defence) Result: Liberal Democrat 668 (56% +14% on last time), Conservative 316 (27% +4% on last time), Labour 144 (12% +7% on last time), Green Party 41 (3%, no candidate last time), United Kingdom Independence Party 14 (1% -29% on last time)…

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If LAB is pinning its hopes on by-elections in CON held seats then history is not on its side

If LAB is pinning its hopes on by-elections in CON held seats then history is not on its side

There’s been just one by-election in past 16 years caused by death/illness of CON incumbent There is a lot of hope on the Labour side that the small CON working majority with the DUP could be cut as result of a by-election loss. The only problem with this is that historically there have been very few by-elections caused by the illness or death of the CON incumbent. Since 2001 there has been just one compare with 15 Labour health/death ones….

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One and a half nations, how a longstanding trend has for now been checked

One and a half nations, how a longstanding trend has for now been checked

Picture: The current political map of the UK (via the BBC) Britain is a geological seesaw.  After the last ice age retreated, the release of the weight of the ice has resulted in the bedrock on the northern half of the island rebounding, forcing the southern half of the island as a consequence to sink. It also has a longstanding political north-south seesaw.  The timescales are not quite as long term as the geological seesaw but they have proved enduring…

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Tonight’s council by-elections

Tonight’s council by-elections

Four council by-elections today: two Labour defences, one Conservative and one Lib Dem. @AndrewTeale's previews: https://t.co/sB47GgLt27 pic.twitter.com/oJECfONqkD — Britain Elects (@britainelects) June 29, 2017 TSE

Turns out the Queen’s Speech has caused more problems for Jeremy Corbyn than Theresa May

Turns out the Queen’s Speech has caused more problems for Jeremy Corbyn than Theresa May

Labour sources now say three frontbenchers sacked for defying whip – Ruth Cadbury, Catherine West and Andy Slaughter — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) June 29, 2017 Daniel Zeichner resigned before the vote – four holes on Labour front bench on what should have been bad day for Tories — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) June 29, 2017 Senior Labour figure, not Corbynite, says 'disappointed' Umuna put down amendment cos politically 'unecessary' to force labour split today — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) June 29, 2017…

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It would appear some Tory MPs are determined to see a British En Marche happen

It would appear some Tory MPs are determined to see a British En Marche happen

EXC: Dozens of Tory MPs have emailed Andrea Leadsom urging her to run for leader again https://t.co/X8iKsfggKh — Adam Payne (@adampayne26) June 29, 2017 Why else would they back Leadsom? It is very reminiscent of Labour MPs backing Michael Foot just before defecting to the SDP so their old party was saddled with an unappealing leader. Business Insider report today that Dozens of Conservative MPs have urged Andrea Leadsom to run for the party leadership since Theresa May’s failure to…

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GE17 saw the emergence of a new type of “shy Tory” – those opposed to Corbyn but didn’t want a big CON win

GE17 saw the emergence of a new type of “shy Tory” – those opposed to Corbyn but didn’t want a big CON win

One of the features of living in a super LAB-CON marginal less than an hour from London that regularly changes hands is that you get a lot of attention at general elections. Corbyn’s first big outside visit after the election was called in April was to Bedford which was a regular port of call by David Cameron and earlier LAB leaders at GE10 and GE15. So what was striking about TMay’s GE17 campaign is that it was almost invisible here…

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David Davis continues to be the favourite to succeed TMay as CON leader

David Davis continues to be the favourite to succeed TMay as CON leader

The big question is whether there’ll be a contest or will TMay hang on So TMay got her Queen’s Speech through the Commons with a majority of 14 thanks to the DUP and that probably reduces the immediate pressure on the PM. But without a majority it looks set to be an interesting time ahead. Unlike the CON-LD coalition the DUP obligation to vote with the Tories is limited to very specific issues and the chances are that there’ll be…

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