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David Davis continues to be the favourite to succeed TMay as CON leader

June 28th, 2017

The big question is whether there’ll be a contest or will TMay hang on

So TMay got her Queen’s Speech through the Commons with a majority of 14 thanks to the DUP and that probably reduces the immediate pressure on the PM.

But without a majority it looks set to be an interesting time ahead. Unlike the CON-LD coalition the DUP obligation to vote with the Tories is limited to very specific issues and the chances are that there’ll be regular Commons defeats.

As long as there are no by-election losses or defections they should just about manage for the short term.

One thing that is likely is that the situation will be very draining on ministers and CON MP who are going to have to be at the Commons for much longer periods than normal. Labour could spring an ambush at any time and will do.

All this makes it less likely that we will see an early CON leadership contest provided that TMay’s health holds up.

Mike Smithson