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Month: June 2017

After just 3 Tory PMs in 37 years we might soon see 3 Tory PMs in just 3 (yes three) years

After just 3 Tory PMs in 37 years we might soon see 3 Tory PMs in just 3 (yes three) years

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Very interesting story from @ShippersUnbound. https://t.co/uj2SdQkuuP pic.twitter.com/MaOQRAq3sO — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 25, 2017 The Sunday Times report Philip Hammond is being lined up to replace Theresa May as prime minister as part of an alliance with David Davis to deliver Brexit safely. Ministers said this weekend that Hammond should be anointed as leader before October’s party conference provided he vows to stand down after two years so that someone else can lead the Conservatives into the next election. A former…

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Taking the 3/1 on no Brexit deal being reached before the 1st of April 2019

Taking the 3/1 on no Brexit deal being reached before the 1st of April 2019

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Paddy Power have some Brexit specials up, most of them look like contributions to the Paddy Power bonus fund, or a long term interest free loan to them. The one that attracted my attention was the 3/1 on there no Brexit deal being reached before the 1st of April 2019. Whilst Mrs May’s rhetoric of ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ has been consigned to the dustbin of history after June 8th, I still think no deal is likely simply…

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If you think that CON will struggle to agree a DUP supply/confidence deal there’s a very interesting bet

If you think that CON will struggle to agree a DUP supply/confidence deal there’s a very interesting bet

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How Betfair define “CON minority” opens this up As far as I can see there is just one GE2016 betting market still open – that on what will be the form of the new government. CON majority was clearly the huge favourite until 10pm on June 8th and since then CON minority has become the tight odds-on favourite. With bets like this it is vital that punters read the precise terms of the market before investing their cash. These are…

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Events are boxing May in while Corbyn sits pretty

Events are boxing May in while Corbyn sits pretty

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The structural weaknesses of May’s government will leave its impression on the public Only a fool would try to predict how this parliament will play out after all the extraordinary political upheavals and upsets this decade so far. So here goes. The central fact in British politics right now is that Jeremy Corbyn is unchallengeable. He will serve through to the next election (and perhaps beyond), unless he chooses to stand aside before it, of his own volition. He and…

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The first local by election since GE17 – the results

The first local by election since GE17 – the results

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First of all, an explanation of this new method. During the general election campaign I became aware that a lot of people were doing profiles of the wards up for local by-elections and having a look through them all I came to the conclusions that the profiles offered by Andrew Teale were far and away the best, therefore in consultation with Mike, I said that I would list the results of the local by-elections after the results had been published…

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Alastair Meeks makes his first next general election bet: LAB to win most seats

Alastair Meeks makes his first next general election bet: LAB to win most seats

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The crimson tide is coming in The Conservatives are in a wretched state. Everything Theresa May has touched recently has turned to ashes. Jeremy Corbyn in his response to the Queen’s Speech stated that the government has no majority, no mandate and no plan. Jeremy Corbyn is right. Theresa May remains in office for now, a case study in faute de mieux. Everyone, including I suspect Theresa May herself, seems to recognise that the Age of May is concluded. But…

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It is the trend in TMay’s YouGov “best PM” ratings that should really worry the Tories

It is the trend in TMay’s YouGov “best PM” ratings that should really worry the Tories

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The miniscule lead with YouGov that Corbyn now enjoys as “best PM” is not what should concern her party but the trend which is illustrated in my chart above. It all peaked in the first polling after she made the brave, and in retrospect disastrous, decision in April to go for a general election three years ahead of schedule. Then she was a walloping 39% ahead. As can be seen this has moved steadily downwards ever since and now she…

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