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New GE2017 study suggests that CON>LAB swing was larger in marginals facing NHS charges and A&E closures

July 23rd, 2017

How true is the assertion that the NHS cost TMay her majority?

The I report notes that:

“The new analysis, by the specialist health consultancy Incisive Health and seen by i, reveals that the average 2017 swing from Conservatives to Labour in 105 marginal seats facing local A&E changes was 3.2 per cent. In seats not facing A&E changes the swing to Labour was half at 1.6 per cent. “The General Election was billed as the Brexit election, but changes to hospitals was a big issue on the doorstep.

Public concern about the future of an A&E can cut-through the noise of an election campaign like little else.” Kieran Lucia, Account Manager, Incisive Health If the swing in the 105 seats facing local A&E changes or closures is adjusted to match areas without, the Conservatives would have won 12 more seats – enough to have given Mrs May a majority in the House of Commons.

This on the face of it is interesting but I think we need to wait for the final BES study of what happened on June 8th before drawing too many conclusions. Clearly this study in the I report has been produced for a reason and that is to make a political point.

Correlation it should be remembered does not equate to causation.

Mike Smithson