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Month: August 2017

TMay’s GE17 campaign was the first to see net CON seat losses since the Blair landslide 20 years ago

TMay’s GE17 campaign was the first to see net CON seat losses since the Blair landslide 20 years ago

The extraordinary thing is that she’s still there One of the consequences of her statement that she’d like to fight the next general election is that people will recall what happened in June when nearly two decades of recovery for the party came to an abrupt end. As can be seen in the chart at every election after the 1997 Blair drubbing there had been quite a lot of progress in terms of seats. It is no wonder that the…

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TMay’s desire to fight the next election makes a challenge this autumn more likely

TMay’s desire to fight the next election makes a challenge this autumn more likely

.@nicholaswatt speaks to former Downing St adviser @CraigOliver100 about Theresa May's ambition to stay beyond the next election #newsnight pic.twitter.com/N1VnMGieoB — BBC Newsnight (@BBCNewsnight) August 30, 2017 Feels like the reaction among Tory MPs to May saying she'll fight on is "Lol, you're not" not "Oh dear, better putsch her early". — Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) August 30, 2017 Maybe the plan is to bring things to a head By announcing overnight her desire to carry on as CON leader and…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Discussing the Brexit talks with Jonathan Portes

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Discussing the Brexit talks with Jonathan Portes

The PB/Polling Matters podcast returns with a review of the summer and in-depth interview on the Brexit talks and where Britain goes from here with Jonathan Portes. Jonathan is a Professor of Economics at King’s College London and a Senior Fellow for UK in a Changing Europe. An expert in matters of immigration and labour markets, Jonathan was Chief Economist at the DWP from 2002 to 2008 and at the Cabinet Office from 2008 to 2011. He was also Director…

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Towards a rational immigration policy

Towards a rational immigration policy

Turkey has mandatory conscription for men between 20 and 41.  Gay men, however, are exempt.  According to the official commentary to the army’s health regulation, to be exempted from service, “documentary evidence must prove that the defects in sexual behaviour are obvious and would create problems when revealed in a military context.”  Many gay men have to endure pseudo-scientific tests designed to appraise both their homosexuality and the extent to which it might render them “unfit” for service. Some are…

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McCluskey’s comments on Corbyn’s successor help move Emily Thornberry to 2nd favourite

McCluskey’s comments on Corbyn’s successor help move Emily Thornberry to 2nd favourite

The Unite boss’s backing could be crucial While all the focus has been on the Tory leadership there’s been a shake up in the Next LAB leader market after a report from Paul Waugh at HuffPost. He wrote: “Emily Thornberry is being backed by Unite boss Len McCluskey to become Labour’s first woman leader, HuffPost UK can reveal. The general secretary of the UK’s biggest trade union has told friends that he thinks Thornberry is a unifying figure who can…

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Once again Britain is split down the middle on Brexit while YouGov has the Tories within one point

Once again Britain is split down the middle on Brexit while YouGov has the Tories within one point

The last YouGov voting intention poll a month ago had with CON 3% behind so changes all within the margin of error. The regular Brexit tracker from the firm sees those saying it was wrong with a 2% lead. Last month those saying it was right were 2% ahead. Again this is all margin of error stuff and there is no indication of any BrexRegrets. UPDATE ICM also sees narrowing of gap New ICM polls has LAB & CON level…

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New study finds that in the key general election marginals candidates with local links are likely to have an edge

New study finds that in the key general election marginals candidates with local links are likely to have an edge

New study finds that fewer than ? CON. MPs elected at GE17 had constituency links compared with ? LAB MPs – Timeshttps://t.co/SoZfdOd4d2 pic.twitter.com/Wwtx49mh4c — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 29, 2017 86% of seats that changed hands at GE17 won by local candidates 35% higher than UK average https://t.co/SoZfdOd4d2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 29, 2017 There’s a fascinating report in the Times this morning linked to in the Tweets above about a study by the Think Tank, Demos, on the…

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It is a mistake to assume that LAB leave voters feel as strongly about Brexit as CON ones

It is a mistake to assume that LAB leave voters feel as strongly about Brexit as CON ones

If it comes to the crunch LAB leavers see jobs as more important With Labour apparently shifting its position on Brexit a notch or two there’s been a lot of interest about what Labour voters think particularly those who supported Leave at the referendum. There is not that much polling about where we can see specifically how LAB Leavers view an issue compared with CON ones and those of other parties. One of surveys that had this split and is…

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