The BES polling chart that surely means that GE2017 was TMay’s first and last election as leader

August 1st, 2017

The blues can’t be lumbered by such an electoral liability again

There’s a new academic study, commissioned by the BBC, that uses the latest BES data to try to track what actuully happened. Given the presidential nature of UK general elections the above chart appears highly significant.

    The more people saw of TMay during the campaign the less they liked her while the converse was the case with Cobnyn.

The study, by Prof Ed Fieldhouse and Dr Chris Prosser of Manchester University, found that 19% of voters switched their choice during the campaign with 54% going to LAB and 19% to CON.

They conclude that more than any election in modern times the campaign did matter and this was to the detriment of the Tories.

The differing views of BREXIT played a huge part. Amongst those who thought controlling immigration was more important the Tories had a 40%+ lead. However LAB had a similar lead with those who those wanting complete access to the single market.

The overall national vote share were shares were clearly influenced by the dramatic decline of UKIP to just 1.8% so TMay’s backers cannot take any real comfort from that.

It is very hard to see how having a leader who clearly lost the campaign is going to help TMay’s job security.

Mike Smithson