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Month: August 2017

Trump’s attacks on the media are simply failing to resonate and he’s well behind in 2020 match-ups

Trump’s attacks on the media are simply failing to resonate and he’s well behind in 2020 match-ups

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Trump's attacks on the media not resonating. This from @ppppolls pic.twitter.com/3YRnSBrigb — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 24, 2017 Trump's Russia links "fake news"? @ppppolls pic.twitter.com/d82Ihjq58t — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 24, 2017 After Charlottesville and the mixed messages that came out of the White House only to be followed by another huge barrage of attacks against the “media” new polling overnight suggests that the President is not making any inroads as the above polling suggests. Trump needs something to attack…

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How leading Tories did in their own seats at the General Election

How leading Tories did in their own seats at the General Election

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Why I was wrong about Rudd Over the past few weeks when discussing Amber Rudd’s chances of succeeding TMay I have broadly dismissed those who have said the tightness of her majority in Hastings (346) rules her out of becoming leader. My argument had been that leaders generally do better in their own constituency than their party because of things like local pride. Not so has been the response of a couple of PBers who have been in touch to…

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Hung Parliaments are becoming the norm and we have to get used to it

Hung Parliaments are becoming the norm and we have to get used to it

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Inevitably it means governments that are weak and limited The British political system has a reputation for producing strong governments. It is often seen as one of its virtues. For a long time, it was true. From December 1918, the first election in which women could vote, until February 1974, a single party had a majority in the House of Commons for all bar 3 years 3 months of that period. Times have moved on, though many seem not to…

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Concern about immigration drops sharply although nearly 3 times as many CON voters raised it than LAB ones

Concern about immigration drops sharply although nearly 3 times as many CON voters raised it than LAB ones

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NHS remains top issue facing country according to Aug @IpsosMORI Issues Index which uniquely does not prompt responses pic.twitter.com/a4uWqWYFWh — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 22, 2017 Concern about immigration continue to slide according to latest @IpsosMORI Issues Index pic.twitter.com/keGIuq6XS4 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 22, 2017 From latest @IpsosMORI issues index – concern split by party support. Notice big CON-LAB gap on immigration pic.twitter.com/U13eUR2VxD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 22, 2017 In a month which has seen almost no polls…

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The “Will Trump survive full term betting” edges back to him making it

The “Will Trump survive full term betting” edges back to him making it

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I love today’s New York Daily News front page that I thought it would be a good peg to look at what are by far the biggest current political betting markets – will Trump survive a full term and what year will he leave the White House. These tend to fluctuate sharply and in the past couple of days the money has moved back a notch to Trump’s survival. In the aftermath of the white supremacist matches and Trump’s initial…

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Theresa’s Tories still being hit by the GE2017 branding gamble

Theresa’s Tories still being hit by the GE2017 branding gamble

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No post election poll has matched the CON election share which itself was seen as a disappointment It was noticing the photograph above of the Conservative battle bus at the general election that reminded me what a huge gamble the blue team made at the last election by putting everything on Theresa May. Notice that on the bus the words Conservative or Tory don’t appear. The election was going to be all about Theresa but as it turned out by…

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New polling finds that more than a third of Leave voters believed that £350m a week would be coming to the NHS

New polling finds that more than a third of Leave voters believed that £350m a week would be coming to the NHS

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And one in five of all leave voters are still expecting the extra £350m a week for the NHS In its August poll Opinium, which was one of the most accurate at the EU referendum, asked about whether at the time voters had believed the Leave Campaign on the £350m a week coming back to the NHS. There were the possible repsones: A ” I believed this pledge at the time and think that the £350 million contribution will be…

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New leader ratings in 3 state key to Trump’s 2016 victory have him with big favourability deficits

New leader ratings in 3 state key to Trump’s 2016 victory have him with big favourability deficits

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Those of us who stayed up all night for the White House election last November will recall the huge focus on Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan – states won by Obama in 2012 which went to the Republican last year. These were won by the tightest of margins down to 1.23% in Wisconsin, 0.64% in Pennsylvania and 0.23% in Michigan and were central to Trump’s shock victory. Now the latest Mairist/NBC News polling in these three states finds that Trump has…

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