Archive for September, 2017

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Tonight’s by election previews

Thursday, September 21st, 2017

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Every day Mrs May remains PM she’s buying the Tories at least one week in opposition.

Thursday, September 21st, 2017

If Mrs May loved her country and party she’d go now, by staying she’s making Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister inevitable. The last time I saw a Prime Minister’s rating collapse like this was with Gordon Brown, Labour haven’t been in power since.

Things can only get better for Labour whilst Mrs May remains Prime Minister, to paraphrase the only Tory to win a majority in the last quarter of a century, for heaven’s sake woman, go!

TSE



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The buzzword bingo on Theresa May’s Florence speech

Thursday, September 21st, 2017

Ladbrokes have a market up on what Theresa May might say in her Florence speech tomorrow, and I get the feeling that this is another market that will help contribute to the Ladbrokes Christmas bonus fund.

If I had to choose I’d back the 12/1 on ‘Global Trading Power’, but if PBers spot any value, please let me know.

TSE



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The consequences of Amber Rudd’s decision to ignore the courts

Wednesday, September 20th, 2017

By acting ultra vires, Amber Rudd’s actions should worry anyone who believes in the rule of law

Because of Boris Johnson’s behaviour there’s one story that hasn’t received the attention it deserves and that is the story of Amber Rudd being held in contempt of court, last Thursday The Guardian reported

An asylum seeker is holed up in a hotel room in Kabul in fear for his life after the home secretary breached a high court order not to remove him from the UK and instead put him on a plane back to Afghanistan.

Samim Bigzad, 23, says he is a prime target for the Taliban because he worked in construction for the Afghan government and American companies before he sought sanctuary in the UK. 

Now he is back in Kabul he is even more fearful after a group of armed men in plainclothes arrived at the hotel on Wednesday and demanded to know his whereabouts.

Two high court judges have made separate orders calling for Bigzad to be brought back to the UK as a matter of urgency. The second states that the home secretary, Amber Rudd, is in contempt of court for breaching the first order not to remove Bigzad.

If ministers can flout the rule of law and the courts then that sets a dangerous precedent for their successors, if any Tory wants to go down the partisan route and defend Amber Rudd, just think of how you’d feel if say Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell were in government flouting the rule of law by being held in contempt of court?

Lord Falconer, a former Lord Chancellor, has written an article on this subject, the headline says it all ‘If Amber Rudd can’t explain why she defied the courts, she should go.’ If Labour had someone with more substance and nous than Diane Abbott as Shadow Home Secretary, then Amber Rudd might be in trouble to the point of resigning, however I’m going to take the 40/1 on Amber Rudd as next out of the cabinet that Paddy Power are offering.

TSE

PS – This is why I, like many others, have huge concerns about the ‘Henry VIII powers’ that the government is planning to use in the forthcoming European Union Withdrawal Bill, the executive want us to believe they will act honourably, Amber Rudd’s actions indicate the opposite.



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Boris Johnson the David Miliband de nos jours?

Wednesday, September 20th, 2017

On resigning, it’s BoNo, I can’t leave, with or without you Prime Minister.

We’ve been here before, an unpopular analogue Prime Minister in a digital world who most of their party would like to ditch, a Foreign Secretary writing a newspaper article setting out their vision which many took as the beginning of a leadership challenge but then chickened out of that challenge.

I wonder like David Miliband, Boris Johnson has damaged himself with these shenanigans and ultimately rue not quitting/toppling the Prime Minister. But as many sources and outlets have reported overnight Boris Johnson has pulled back from the brink and cancelled his seemingly inevitable flounce that was scheduled this coming weekend.

If Boris decides to repeat his antics of the past week in the future and doesn’t topple Mrs May then he’s going to lose even more support and lustre, like the Grand Old Duke of York (and Albany) marching his troops up to the top of the hill then marching then back down again, it won’t end well.

What will other cabinet ministers make of this? I suspect they will see Mrs May capitulates under the slightest pressure and provocation, this does not bode well for good governance, as Ken Clarke noted, in normal circumstances Boris Johnson would have been sacked for his recent actions.

Amusingly like David Miliband, Boris Johnson has a younger brother who is also an MP, if history is about to repeat itself, you might consider taking the 100/1 on Jo Johnson as next Tory Leader that several bookies are offering.

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The front page of Private Eye captures the political mood perfectly

Tuesday, September 19th, 2017

Boris Johnson is now 3/1 favourite as next out of the cabinet, he was 8/1 last week.

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It seems the only exiting going on at the Department for Exiting the European Union is the staff exiting

Tuesday, September 19th, 2017

David Davis is paying the price for the poor state of the negotiations and 20/1 on him as next out of the cabinet looks good.

Over the past twenty-four hours it appears Mrs May is taking back control from both Boris Johnson and David Davis, the tweets above see to confirm that Mr Davis is effectively being sidelined from the Brexit negotiations.

I suspect this is an indication of how poorly he has handled them so far, for example having promised ‘the row of the summer’ over the sequencing of the talks he meekly surrendered, like the French army in 1940, on the first day of talks.

No wonder Mrs May is taking charge, I wonder if David Davis might flounce out of the cabinet, he does have a history of vanity flouncing out of the (shadow) cabinet. Paddy Power are offering 20/1 on him being first out the cabinet, I reckon that’s value, given his past form and recent events, especially when Ladbrokes are offering 16/1*.

You know you’ve hit rock bottom when you’re making Theresa May look decisive and assured, that’s how badly David Davis has sunk. No wonder ‘Boris Johnson believes Brexit negotiations will fail.’ Although I’m sure David Davis will be able to turn things around through these challenging times with the help of his current Chief of Staff, Stewart Jackson, the successor to James Chapman.

TSE

*Note the Paddy Power terms are slightly different to the terms Ladbrokes are offering, Paddy Power say ‘This market will be settled when the person no longer has a position in cabinet. Reshuffles do Not count. Dead heat if more than one leave on the same day.’



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Betting on when Boris Johnson ceases to be Foreign Secretary

Monday, September 18th, 2017

Why I think Boris is about to F Off from the F. Off.

Paddy Power have a market up on when Boris Johnson ceases to be Foreign Secretary, judging by the tweets atop this piece, and my own hunch, I think Boris is itching to leave the cabinet.

Whether he’s not keen on Mrs May’s approach to Brexit, wants to be Mrs May’s successor, or sees the tempest long foretold of a bad/WTO Brexit and wants nothing to do with it. If Brexit does turn into the long term disaster that Remain predicted then I suspect the architects of Leave will be seen in the same light as the appeasers of 1930s. If Boris is on the backbenches he can argue he wasn’t able  to deliver his version of a successful Brexit.

He might also be looking enviously at his contemporaries David Cameron and George Osborne earning, inter alia, £650,000 per year for working one day a week, and fancy earning that. Although he might not be able to command that level of salary given that he was really a glorified council leader, and so far a not very successful Foreign Secretary whereas as Cameron and Osborne were successful job creating, deficit reducing First and Second Lords of the Treasury.

So if you think Boris is about to quit, you’d be better off backing the 6/1 Ladbrokes are offering on Boris as next out the cabinet, but if you think he’s in for the long haul the 4/1 on 2019 looks interesting, 2019 which is the date many expect Mrs May to stand down. I think his intervention in his newspaper article on day of a terrorist attack on London will look like the crassest of mistakes, the early polling seems to be pointing that way.

TSE