h1

If these rumours turn out to be accurate I can see a 2018 general election happening

October 30th, 2017

Robert Peston’s Facebook post is very interesting, the bit that stood out for me was, this bit

That said, any escalation of the scandal that prompted resignations of MPs and by-elections would be a catastrophe for a prime minister and Tory party whose grip on office is the most tenuous of any government since the 1970s.

May somehow needs to hose down this fire pronto.

Unlike the expenses scandal, where there was a general election within a year which allowed some miscreants to announce their intention to stand down, today we’re potentially over four years away from a general election, so that option isn’t feasible. Unlike then, we now have a recall law to recall MPs if they meet a certain threshold.

If the badly behaving MPs are indeed cabinet ministers that also impacts on the equilibrium, or lack thereof, in the cabinet when it comes to our post Brexit deal.

If we do see by elections I suspect Brexit will feature heavily in them, with candidates at  the end of the political spectrum winning, such as those who are opposed to Brexit and those who get tumescent at the prospect of a Hard/WTO Brexit, which could impact the type of Brexit we get.

I suspect if Mark Garnier’s is forced to resign as a minister, he won’t be the only one, there’s some bad vibes around this whole sorry saga.

Given the downright surrealness of the last few years in the world of politics, the government and the type of Brexit we could get might be determined by the appalling behaviour of some MPs towards their staff and other political workers.

TSE