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Month: December 2017

Theresa May is set to conduct a major reshuffle in January, but will she end up causing even more problems for herself?

Theresa May is set to conduct a major reshuffle in January, but will she end up causing even more problems for herself?

Great for @ShippersUnbound to have such an informed reshuffle piece, but aides briefing on reshuffles causes mayhem – angry ministers start demanding private reassurances and counter-briefing begins. Soon someone asks: are sure we *really* want to do this? pic.twitter.com/E9f99pWHJ5 — Craig Oliver (@CraigOliver100) December 31, 2017 Five more malcontents on the backbenches might be a mistake. Both The Sunday Times and The Sun on Sunday have stories about Mrs May planning to conduct an extensive reshuffle in January. This is…

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Three tips on who might be Theresa May’s successor

Three tips on who might be Theresa May’s successor

A few days before Christmas I had lunch with a friend who has followed the Tory party for decades and knows it quite well. Inevitability the conversation turned on who might be Mrs May’s successor, their observations had a quite the impact and led to an update to my betting portfolio. My friend and I are of the consensus that if Mrs May survives into 2020 then her successor is likely to be someone who is currently not in the…

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Local By-Election Review 2017 – how the parties have performed

Local By-Election Review 2017 – how the parties have performed

To describe 2017 as a year of two halves would be absolutely correct, as the general election held on June 8th marked a distinct dividing line not only at Westminster (between a Conservative majority of 12 and no majority) but also in local by-elections with the electoral pendulum swinging rapidly from one side to the other and so therefore it is best to look at the year before and after the general election Before the General Election (January 1st –…

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Defining Britain: who wins that battle will likely win GE2022

Defining Britain: who wins that battle will likely win GE2022

The UK’s self-image must change post-Brexit – but to what? By rights, the Conservative Party should have disappeared a long time ago. On the wrong side of the Reform debate before 1832, their opponents dominated the middle of the nineteenth century. That was in no small part down to divisions within the Tories but was also because the Liberals had a better vision to sell to a rapidly industrialising and urbanising Britain and to its newly enfranchised electorate. As the…

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The challenges facing the Conservatives

The challenges facing the Conservatives

The Conservatives are in power and in disarray.  They possess a will to power but no common view on what to do with it.  For now the bulk of the party is intent on pursuing Brexit to its bitter conclusion.  But what then?  What indeed.  For the Conservative coalition has been turned upside down. Charles gave a crisp summary a couple of weeks ago of the three Conservative tribes. All three have abandoned their usual stances in the face of…

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Tories are aping DTrump when they claim the electoral system’s rigged against them

Tories are aping DTrump when they claim the electoral system’s rigged against them

It is bollocks for minsters to suggest that electoral system favours LAB. Now CON main beneficiary .GE17CON win 48.9% of MPs with 42.4% voteLAB win 40.3% of MPs with 40% of voteLDs 1.8% of MPs with 7.4% of votehttps://t.co/AaCXsFOWOx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 29, 2017 The headline on the Telelgraph's Trump-like Labour's trying to rig election front page lead pic.twitter.com/zJPoPDiSDW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 29, 2017 The Telegraph’s making a fool of itself I know it is the…

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In the absence of divine intervention defeated Alabama Republican Moore launches action to overturn result

In the absence of divine intervention defeated Alabama Republican Moore launches action to overturn result

Defeated Republican in Alabama, Roy Moore, launches action to nullify the result. https://t.co/XjsGswYgSM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 28, 2017 Betfair punters might have to wait even longer Today was supposed to be the day when the hard fought and controversial special election in Alabama to elect a Senator was due to be formalised, In the Sensational result 2 weeks ago the Democrats beat the controversial Republican, Roy Moore by 1.5%. Instead of accepting the outcome Moore said on the…

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Alastair Meeks and his predictions for 2018

Alastair Meeks and his predictions for 2018

I broke my habit of recent years last year and didn’t make any predictions for the coming year (I had no time at the end of last year).  That was fortunate because I would have got almost everything wrong.  However, it is a good discipline to make these predictions if only so that I can identify what I thought was going on and think about why I was wrong (or right) later on.  That way I might actually get better….

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