Donald Trump’s exit year remains the most active political betting market

December 20th, 2017

But what a tedious unimaginative market

As we move towards the end of the year I plan to run a series of posts looking at the current active betting markets of which there are not a lot.

The top one is, inevitably, Donald Trump and which year he will eventually stop being president. As can be seen from the Betdata.io chart punters rate him as a 53% chance of getting to the end of his first term.

This is a market that can move very quickly in reaction to events particularly the investigations into whether or not Mr Putin had a role in Trump’s shock election victory last year.

There has been a huge amount written on that and no doubt it will continue to dominate the news in one form or another until such time as Trump moves on or else the issue is cleared up.

So far on Betfair alone £1.3m has been wagered and this gets added to at about £20k-£30k per week.

A a punter I find this market totally boring and haven’t been tempted to tie up cash for that long. Compare it with the excellent market on how many days Bill Clinton would survive during his second term when impeachment proceedings were in place. This was a spread betting market which to me is the most superior form a political gambling and, alas, one which the spread betting firms are only tempted to carry out during general elections.

Mike Smithson