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Poll shows Leave voters would stay mostly solid even if Brexit hurts economy, their finances and the NHS

February 14th, 2018

Above in the chart is a new BMG poll which seeks to ascertain the attitudes of Leave voters to negative aspects of Brexit. It was commissioned by Left Foot Forward.

The problem here, of course, is that it is all totally hypothetical. Such things were said during the referendum campaign itself and Leaver voters, clearly, were not taken aback then.

So why should we be surprised when more than a year before Brexit those who voted that way should feel the same?

I think that this form of polling is very difficult and is akin to the efforts to do voting intention surveys on potential alternative party leaders. Remember all those polls that had Gordon Brown marked down before he became PM in June 2007 and then he enjoyed a honeymoon for a few months when he could do no wrong?

What happens after March next year is very difficult to predict. If say the Japanese car manufacturers move out, the City gets undermined and Britain’s pharmaceutical industry contracts then GDP could decline and we could all be a bit poorer. But we don’t know.

The biggest negativity for Leave comes on the NHS question which is not surprising given the huge political sensitivity of it. That claim on the side of the Leave campaign bus will be brought up by Remainers for years to come.

Mike Smithson