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On the biggest current political betting market Trump now given a 64% chance of survival

February 15th, 2018

Trump amazing powers to distract are stopping bad news taking hold

With all the focus on Brexit and Theresa May’s survival in the UK it is sometimes easy to forget that from a political betting point of view the big markets are in the US and particularly on whether Donald Trump survives his first term.

We’ve not looked at this for some time but as the chart above shows the price, on Betfair, have moved quite sharply in his favour from a position when he was 50/50 to the current 64% chance that he’s going to make it through to the end.

    One of the abilities that Trump appears to have is being able to move the subject when a very difficult story appears about him in the media.

So much White House news comes out almost everyday it is very difficult for a particular story to take hold and events that would have brought other presidents to their knees have somehow been bypassed. Remember all the news that was coming out before Christmas on the book about Trump in the White House with comments from his former chief of staff which were less than flattering to the president. Yet now that is long forgotten.

Whether this can continue in the next three years we don’t know and there’s a suggestion from Taegan Goddard that this might be getting harder.

I’ve not bet on this market and I don’t think I will do because I think that Trump is going to survive and I don’t locking up cash in odds on positions that won’t resolved for three years.

Mike Smithson