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The Tory headache that no one talks about – the 3.2m GE2017 CON voters who backed Remain at the referendum

February 27th, 2018

These exceed the 2.6m GE2017 LAB leave voters by some margin

We get lots of talk about Labour having to be mindful that a significant part of its voters at the last election also voted Leave in the referendum.

But we don’t seem to hear much about what in terms of a percentage of the overall number of voters at the last election, the total of Conservative Remain voters exceeded them.

The above chart which has been highlighted by Election Data on Twitter is based on data from the BES which carried out extensive studies at both elections.

So far since the last general election the polls suggest there has been very little movement between those who voted Conservative and those who voted Labour but we cannot assume that that position will continue.

The electoral maths suggest that it is Rees-Mogg, BoJo, TMay or whoever leads the blue team at the next general election has by far the biggest challenge keeping Tory Remain voters on board.

Until yesterday, perhaps, the idea that this voting group could be susceptible to Corbyn’s Labour seemed a fantasy.

    Now the challenge is that if we do end up with a softer Brexit than the position BoJo/JRM are identified with then it is Corbyn who is seen as having made the running.

Mrs May has some very dangerous waters to navigate. Her speech this week could be crucial.

Mike Smithson