Democrats take small lead in Special Pennsylvania Congressional election in district won by Trump at WH2016 by 20%

March 6th, 2018

A bellwether for the November midterms

What’s getting a lot of coverage in the US media at the moment is a big battle going on in the outskirts of Pittsburgh in a Special Congressional election caused by the resignation of the Republican incumbent over a sex scandal. It is said that millions of dollars has been spent and the Democrats are hoping they can take the district in an area that was natural Trump territory at WH2016. His margin was 20%

What are termed “Special Elections” in the US are the equivalent of UK by-elections with ones for the House or Senate in Washington the most important of all. Before Christmas, it will be be recalled, the Democrats took a senate seat in the rock solid Republican stronghold of Alabama.

What makes this important is that it could be a good pointer to what will happen in November when all the Congressional seats are up for election. The big hope of the Democrats is that the House will fall to them.

The ABC report above gives a good sense of the politics and why this is so important. Voting takes place a week today.

If Trump’s man can’t hold on in what is natural Trump country then that could be worrying for the GOP. This is the latest poll.

I’ve not seen any betting markets yet but this could go either way.

Mike Smithson