The Democrats now odds on favourite to take Pennsylvania 18 – the Congressional district won by Trump at WH2016 by 20%

March 13th, 2018

Polls close at midnight UK time

The big political betting event today is the special election (a by-election in UK parlance) in Pennsylvania Congressional district 18 which covers the outskirts of Pittsburgh and where Trump had a 20 point margin at WH2016.

As the RealClear Politics polling table above shows this is looking very tight with the Democratic party believing that they are in with a shout of taking the seat.

Both campaigns have thrown a huge amount of money, at least $10m, at the race which looks set to provide a goodish pointer to this November’s MidTerm elections.

This is very natural Trump territory with a large number of white working class voters.

On Betfair on Monday punters rated this as a 60-40 shot for the Republicans. That’s now flipped the other way moved in following a final poll that is pointing to a 6 point victor for Lamb, the Democratic contender.

Mike Smithson