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That Survation 7% LAB lead poll looks very much the outlier – but then so did the firm’s final GE2017 survey

March 22nd, 2018


Wikipedia

Looking at all the published polls for 2018 that Survation 7% lead survey a couple of weeks back looks and very much out of place.

The other best polls for LAB this year were a Survation 3% lead one in January and a similar margin in Ipsos-MORI phone survey with fieldwork starting three days beforehand.

In normal circumstances we would just regard the latest Survation as one on its own and concentrate on the latest ICM/Opinium/YouGov which have CON leads of two or three percent.

The problem is that Survation’s final GE17 survey, with a 1% CON lead, topped the accuracy table when all the other established firms were showing blue margins of up to 12%.

This is going to continue until we see the polls tested once again in a general election and we might have to wait for four years.

Mike Smithson