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This March looks like being the first month since GE2017 when there were more CON lead polls than LAB ones

March 28th, 2018

Has the GE17 effect finally petered out?

The above chart based on the Wikipedia table of published voting intention polls is a different way of looking at trends in political opinion.

What is shown here is the percentage of polls that had a Labour leads each month and the percentage of published polls that had the Conservatives ahead.

The surveys included are the GB ones and do not include the regional polls such as the Scotland/Wales/London specific ones.

The chart says it all. In the immediate aftermath of the General Election LAB moved up to seeing 100% of all polls recording it being in the lead in July. Since then it edged down a bit and this March we’ve seen a turn around and the Conservatives have had more polling leads than Labour.

We have also seen this month Theresa May’s net approval rating move ahead of Corbyn’s for the first time since the general election. This is another indicator, perhaps, of the way things could be changing

What we haven’t had yet have been any surveys taken after this week’s antisemitism row so we can’t really determine how Corbyn and Labour have been affected by that.

It is worth recalling that Labour now sees the electoral system working against it and it needs to be ahead by 1-2% to ensure most seats. The situation is worse under the proposed new boundaries.

Mike Smithson