A year to go until Brexit day and punters think there’s a 57% chance of the UK leaving the EU on time

March 29th, 2018


The chart shows the movement on the Betfair brexit betting market since March 29th last year when article 50 was invoked. As can be seen there has been quite a change particularly in the past few weeks and now the money is going on the UK leaving the EU on March 29th 2019.

This is all based on the Betfair betting exchange where different punters set the odds and not the bookmaker. For an exchange brings together those who want to bet on something happening and those who want to accept the bet or in betting parlance “lay” it.

This is not a market I have gone into because I think it’s too hard really to call even at this stage though I do agree with the current odds that it is probably a better than evens chance that Brexit will happen.

But an awful lot can happen in the meantime and the government has many challenges in the coming months getting its legislation through. The person who could be most influential is Labour’s Keir Starmer who is working on ensuring that it is MPs and not the executive that decides.

Mike Smithson