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Introducing my 270/1 shot to win WH2020 – Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper

April 3rd, 2018

Ladbrokes have him at 16/1 for the Democratic nomination

It’s just over a year’s time we should be seeing the formal declarations of those entering the run for president in the 2020 White House race and over the ensuing 12 months we are going to hear a lot of speculation about who might put their hats into the ring.

The assumption is that Donald Trump will seek a second term and all the focus is on who will be his opponent from the Democratic party.

At the moment name recognition seems to be helping the ageing duo of Bernie Sanders (76) and ex Vice President Joe Biden (75) in the betting but once the primaries actually start then anything can happen. Just remember how the 2004 odds-on favourite for the nomination, Howard Dean, flopped as soon as the first primary votes were cast in Iowa – a result that played a big part in the foundation of PB.

    I’m not convinced there is any betting value on either Sanders or Biden.

My love is for long shot bets at this stage provided the odds are big enough to justify the risk. There are two things you can bet on with a possible contender – whether they get the nomination and whether they win the presidency.

Sometimes the gap in the betting in between these two can offer very good value for money.

One of the things I have been monitoring is the gap in the betting for the nomination and the President

My bet yesterday at 270 on Betfair was on the former mayor of Denver and current governor of Colorado John Hickenlooper. He’s no newcomer to presidential speculation and there has been talk of him running on a joint independent ticket with Republican John Kasich. Two years ago he was one of those tipped to be the Clinton V-P choice.

To give you an idea of the gap between the presidential markets and the nomination markets that Ladbrokes currently have Hickenlooper at 16/1 for the nomination.

You can still get 100+ on Betfair which still seems value.

There are several ways this bet could be profitable even if he does not make it to the White House. If he does put his hat into the ring then expect his odds to tighten sharply and during the first few primaries expect a high level of turbulence in the betting.

  • I should add that bets are NOT predictions. They are assessments of value based on the current betting odds. If you think that the betting prices on an outcome are better than the odds available then you have a value bet.
  • Mike Smithson