Betfair punters now make it a 66% chance that Trump will survive his first term

April 13th, 2018

After a quite dramatic week in US politics during which there has been a raid on the law firm that advises the President there has been a slight decline on the betting markets on whether Trump will serve a full first term.

The latest development with strong echoes of Watergate in the early 1970s is that Trump’s lawyer is known to have kept extensive sound recordings of those he had been in conversation with and the President’s allies are concerned that the recordings might have been taken.

Clearly there’s a worry that the Federal investigators might have something that could be highly compromising.

Those of my generation who followed the Watergate investigation in the early 70s that eventually led to the fall of Richard Nixon will recall how secret recordings made in his office became a huge point of contention over which there were big legal battles.

My view is that Trump will make it but who knows. Raiding his personal attorney is quite a development.

Mike Smithson