If the Windrush affair has an impact in the polls expect it to be seen most in the leader ratings not voting intention
Could it reverse TMay’s steady recovery since GE2017?
Above is a chart based on Opinium’s net approval ratings for the PM since GE2017. I choose this pollster because it is one of just two that just about always every month publish the latest leader ratings which gives us enough data points for analysis. I wish other firms would follow this lead.
As can be seen TMay made something of a recovery in the immediate post-election period until October when the Opinium fieldwork took place shortly after her disastrous and highly publicised conference speech.
During 2018 there has been a recovery and in the past two months she has had better net ratings than Corbyn.
This week’s news has been very much about TMay because it was on her watch as Home Secretary between 2010 and 2016 that the changes took place which are now causing so much concern.