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Michael Gove looks as though he has his eye on Theresa’s job

April 27th, 2018

Now a clear third in the betting behind Moggsy & BoJo

The machinations in the Conservative Party about Brexit and Windrush has set off a little bit of a flurry of betting on the next party leader market which is currently the busiest UK politics market on Betfair.

The beleaguered Home Secretary, Amber Rudd, has now slipped down to be a 3% chance. Meanwhile Michael Gove has edged up to a clear 3rd place on a 7% chance. He’s behind the old-Etonian pair of BoJo (9%) and Moggsy (185).

    Among the things that Gove offers is that he appears to be everything that the incumbent isn’t. He’s confident, fluent, can think on his feet, and is far more liberal than Mrs May – something that might become increasingly important as we have seen the mood change with the Windrush discussions.

If it wasn’t for Labour and Mr Corbyn’s problems with anti-semitism then we might have had the Windrush issue impacting on the state of the parties poll ratings. That’s not happened but it may do.

Mrs May’s efforts while HomeSec and PM to curb illegal immigration through measures which at same time makes life very uncomfortable for many of those those who are in the country legally hasn’t gone down well. That should have been sorted. Her response has been pedestrian and she’d have appeared much worse if she’d been facing a LOTO other than Corbyn.

What has sparked off some of the betting has been the Sun report that Govey, Rudd and Gavin Willanmson appear to be building up campaign funds.

I’ve not bet on Gove because we have no idea when there will be a vacancy and I’m reluctant to tie up cash for what could be years at shortish odds.

Mike Smithson