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The pollster that got GE2017 most right now has CON in the lead

May 11th, 2018

Ever since the general election when Survation came closest to getting the final outcome right there has been a special regard for Survation amongst Labour supporters.

In the past 11 months since the general election it has continued to be the one firm which has broadly had the best figures for Corbyn’s party with leads of upto 7%.

Whenever I have Tweeted polls from other firms in recent months many Labour supporting followers have responded to say they will wait for Survation to see what it is showing.

There’s little doubt that the last few months have been more troubling for the Labour Party than perhaps anyone imagined. The anti-semitism row, which started a 2012 Facebook comment by Corbyn about a mural being publicised, continues to linger and has undoubtedly damaged the leadership. That was confirmed last week with the failure to take Barnet which became a CON gain instead of a LAB one.

Yet the government party, the Conservatives, are totally divided over Europe as the countdown to Brexit gets closer every day. The general theory is that divided parties get punished by voters . Well if that is the case we are not seeing that effect in the blue poll position.

Next month’s by-election in Lewisham East could prove to be interesting and Labour’s candidate choice could be critical. The LDs who came second there pre-Coalition, are choosing their candidate this weekend.

Mike Smithson