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Brexit exit date punters get nervous following the Electoral Commission ruling on Leave campaign funding

May 12th, 2018

Mar 29 ’19 still favourite but not as strong as it was

Yesterday’s ruling about Vote EU’s referendum expenses has inevitably led to those betting that the March 29th date will be achieved reviewing their positions. In recent weeks the market had been moving strongly towards it happening on time and it is still odds on.

But as the Betdata chart, based on actual Betfair trades shows there has been movement. It simply adds to the uncertainty and allows some of the Remain camp to shout “foul”.

Still being considered by the Commission is the spending of the official Vote Leave organisation and if that goes against then you could expect the betting to change even more

This is not a market I have played. I still think the March 29th date will be met but there is a lot of politics going on with anti-Brexiteers looking for any opening to impede Britain’s exit. Seeking to discredit the result because of campaign finance failures leading to the issue being referred to the police is to them manna from heaven.

Mike Smithson