h1

If punters are right we could have passed peak Jacob Rees-Mogg

May 14th, 2018

Ever since the local elections last week there has been talk of moving on from “Peak Corbyn”. Maybe? But what about “Peak Rees-Mogg?

If punters are correct and the betting movements are indicative there is less certainty about they he will succeed Mrs May as next prime minister.

The chart above shows the last 5 months of market moves on the Betfair Theresa May successor as prime minister market. As can be seen Rees-Mogg has been the favourite for several months but now that has started to decline and he is level pegging with Jeremy Corbyn.

I’ve never been one of the “betting markets being the best predictor” school. What I think they do is give an indication of sentiment that is out there and how those who risk their money on predicting political outcomes are using their cash.

The first thing that Rees-Mogg needs is for Mrs May to step down and the fact that we have not seen any no confidence move in the Prime Minister since she lost the party its majority suggests that this might not be as easy as many think. Firstly 48 CON MPs have to send in formal letters asking for such a vote and then, perhaps, more than half of the 300+ of them have to actually fill in their ballot papers ticking the no confidence box.

Then Mr. Rees-Mogg would have to succeed in the leadership vote amongst MPs to be one of the final two whose names go to a members’ ballot. A problem here is that he has never been a minister.

Mike Smithson