Punters now make it a 32% chance that TMay will be out this year

May 17th, 2018

With all the machinations that are going on within the cabinet over the divisions on Brexit it is perhaps no wonder that here has been renewed interest on betting that she’ll be out this year.

The Betdata.io chart above shows the movement over the past month with next year, presumably post-Brexit, continuing to be the favourite.

Certainly Mrs. May has a huge challenge dealing with the increasing number of Brexit issues and this hasn’t been helped by Corbyn’s new approach to PMQs, coming with a tight script that he keeps to, which have exposed some of her weaknesses.

    But I remain to be convinced. She’ll stay simply because there isn’t an obvious successor who has broad support and that situation doesn’t exist at the moment.

She’s also helped by the Tories doing better than expected in this month’s local elections and the slight decline in the Labour polling position.

Her problem is the memory within the party of how she performed last June when her gamble failed and her lack campaigning skills were very much exposed.

Mike Smithson