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Month: May 2018

Unless LAB can win back Scotland then there’s little chance of Corbyn becoming PM

Unless LAB can win back Scotland then there’s little chance of Corbyn becoming PM

The latest Scotland only polls have LAB down in third place The biggest impact on the Labour-Conservative seat balance in the past decade was the virtual wipeout of LAB north of the border at GE2015. Five years earlier at GE2010 when Labour lost power there were, extraordinarily, no seat changes at all north of the border with what was then Gordon Brown’s party retaining all 41 seats that it held on an overall increased Scottish vote share. The SNP had…

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It is time we thought about another PB gathering

It is time we thought about another PB gathering

I have been reminded that it is now more than a year a year since we had a PB gathering. In recent years these have taken place in pubs in central London where Fat Steve has arranged for a specific area to be allocated to us. He has done a sterling job making the arrangements but alas he is now working overseas. Has anybody got any ideas for a future event and is there someone who is based in London…

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Pro-Brexit anti-Lords poll splashed by the Mail comes under fire for “loaded” questions

Pro-Brexit anti-Lords poll splashed by the Mail comes under fire for “loaded” questions

Leo Barasi of the PB/Polling Matters podcast sets out his reasons Leo Barasi, a regular with Keiran Pedley on the PB/Polling Matters Podcasts is no stranger to PBers and his is always worth listening to. He’s posted on his “Noise of the Crowd” blog observations about the ComRes poll that featured in yesterday’s Daily Mail. He writes: The fundamental problem is that the questions were nearly all one-sided agree/disagree questions, with each one loaded against the Lords and Remainers. A…

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November’s US midterms are looking a lot tighter than a month or so ago

November’s US midterms are looking a lot tighter than a month or so ago

The polling average narrows The Betfair betting exchange get tighter For the past year or so many people have been predicting that the US midterms, the elections that take place exactly 2 years after a presidential election, would not be very good for Mr Trump. In particular the House of Representatives, which is currently controlled by the Republicans, looked set to flip and that would frustrate enormously legislative objectives of the presidency. The Senate comma though, is a different matter….

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Unofficial monster raving loonies. Decoding the Brexit customs union row

Unofficial monster raving loonies. Decoding the Brexit customs union row

NEW: Government to announce tomorrow it will bring back all the Brexit Bills next month to put to the Commons – facing down the (a?) customs union rebels… rebels though are confident they will win. ERG wanted it, now we get considerable fireworks in June. 1922 told today — Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) 23 May 2018 So that would be decisions on 15 Lords amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill but also some MPs have been told its the long lost…

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By-election punters should check the form before risking their cash

By-election punters should check the form before risking their cash

There have only been five Westminster by-elections which have been contested by the main parties since the Brexit referendum and the average party changes are shown in the chart above. As can be seen there have been much bigger movements in constituencies which voted Remain than those which voted Leave. In the former, both in CON held seats seats, the LDs did particularly well picking up one gain with the Tory vote sharply down. What we haven’t had is a…

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Pulpstar says the Tories look value at 13-8 in the Lewisham match bet

Pulpstar says the Tories look value at 13-8 in the Lewisham match bet

Anyone for a couple of Lewisham East match bets? #LewishamEastByElection UKIP 1/2 vs For Britain 6/4Lib Dems 4/7 vs Tories 13/10 pic.twitter.com/eVz4ICdRIz — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) May 22, 2018 The by-election in Lewisham East is attracting a lot of attention on twitter for Labour’s woes in candidate selection, and also some unfortunate tweets by the CLP chair dug up by Owen Jones. How much attention will the average voter there pay to this ? Very little is the runaway favourite…

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A sign of LAB confidence in Lewisham East: Local party chief gets sacked days before the postals go out

A sign of LAB confidence in Lewisham East: Local party chief gets sacked days before the postals go out

Given that the outgoing MP, Heidi Alexander, secured 69% of the vote at GE2017 it has been very hard to predict anything other than a Labour hold. That was why, in the eyes of many, the party’s selection battle was the real fight. That was completed on Saturday when the local party chose Lewisham’s, deputy mayor ahead of the Momentum backed candidate as well as the one supported by Unite – an outcome that’s been seen as a bit of…

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