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Nightmare on Brexit Street

June 3rd, 2018

If this is likely then expect an extension of Article 50 or Corbyn to become PM

Some inside DExEU seems to following the maxim of ‘Hope for the best, expect the worst’, a maxim I follow, which means I’m seldom disappointed but in this instance I’ll be disappointed if this doomsday scenario happens.

But if the civil service are talking about such a scenario then so should the political gambling community. So what does this mean for punters?

I don’t think any Prime Minister will ever countenance the UK running out of food, petrol, and medicines on their watch, so I’d expect Mrs May to ask for an extension of Article 50 whilst we sort of the Brexit mess.

However there are some in the Tory party that are happy to embrace a no deal Brexit so they may try and persuade Mrs May that this is hyperbole from the civil service. They will also have the threat of Nigel Farage following through on his promise to “don khaki, pick up a rifle and head for the front lines” if the Brexit he wants isn’t delivered.

As Mrs May has shown repeatedly she usually ends up acquiescing to her Brexiteer wing. If they succeed in persuading Mrs May to their point of view and we get the doomsday scenario then I expect the government to fall very shortly after March 29th 2019 and a general election where the Tories are walloped and Corbyn becomes PM. This would be sub-optimal especially for those of us who have been laying Corbyn as next PM.

If in the next 10 months Project Fear is shown to be Project Reality then a lot of the betting markets will change fundamentally. Who could have foretold that undoing 45 years membership of a continent wide trade organisation within two or three years would be difficult?

TSE