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Month: July 2018

Just out: new PB/Polling Matters survey from Opinium on political ideologies/systems

Just out: new PB/Polling Matters survey from Opinium on political ideologies/systems

PB /Opinium: Based on your knowledge, do you have a positive or negative view of the following political ideologies or systems? (net positive) Social Democracy +22Liberal Democracy +11Capitalism -7Socialism -11Libertarianism -14Communism -52Anarchism -55Fascism -67 — Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) July 31, 2018 Headlines:1) These terms mean little to a good chunk of people2) Numbers rely on individual interpretation of what terms mean3) Social democracy most popular: more so than socialism4) But socialism & capitalism neck & neck4) Communism, fascism and anarchism…

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Leave voters rate leaving the EU as more important than peace in Northern Ireland

Leave voters rate leaving the EU as more important than peace in Northern Ireland

At Deltapoll, we asked Leave voters in Britain to choose between leaving the #EU and peace in #NorthernIreland. Nearly 6 out of 10 said the UK leaving the EU was more important. #Brexit pic.twitter.com/0FqMJAJZgN — Joe Twyman (@JoeTwyman) July 31, 2018 Do they really want a return to the killings? I must say that I find the above poll finding quite shocking. It is a reflection on just how our memories can fade and also my age. The troubles in…

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The Brexit day party

The Brexit day party

Looming over the back of all the sound and fury of our day to day politics is the inexorable approach of Brexit day. The 29th of March 2019 will be the day when something happens, maybe. We will start an orderly transition to somewhere, or an abrupt and disorderly crunch into somewhere else. There will be some kind of Brexit that might happen, whether it’s hard or soft (my personal bet is on squidgy). Unless we get an extension, which…

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Javid now back as favourite to succeed TMay

Javid now back as favourite to succeed TMay

Betdata.io Even if Mrs May survives as Conservative leader until after Brexit we could still be less than 9 months away from a leadership contest that would choose not just the blue team’s flag carrier but, of course, the Prime Minister. As can be seen from the chart which plots Betfair changes over the past month there is an incredible amount of movement with money going in and out of one candidate after another. I’ve long felt that the former…

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If today’s SkyData poll is on the money Brexiters should begin to worry

If today’s SkyData poll is on the money Brexiters should begin to worry

SkyData poll find backing for second referendum by 10% margin pic.twitter.com/DquF6haFJc — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 30, 2018 By 52% to 35% those sampled in SkyData poll think Brexit will be bad for the economy pic.twitter.com/kDvDxCplQl — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 30, 2018 From today's SkyData poll – what would be preferred Brexit option pic.twitter.com/g0JTjFqL7J — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 30, 2018

The planned new boundaries give CON 40 more seats than LAB for the same national vote shares

The planned new boundaries give CON 40 more seats than LAB for the same national vote shares

GB vote split C38/L38/LD10 on new boundaries: CON 40 seats ahead This makes Corbyn’s task much harder One of the big political developments that could have a huge impact on the outcome of the next general election will come in the next two or three months when the final report of the Boundaries Commission comes out. Under what was agreed by Parliament seven years ago the number of MPs will be reduced from 650 to 600 and each constituency will…

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The Welsh vote could give Thomas the edge for SPOTY

The Welsh vote could give Thomas the edge for SPOTY

I’ve just put a bet on Geriant Thomas for the 2018 Sporting Personality of the Year. I got 3/1 on Betfair. It used to be that cyclists tended to have an edge in the voting that takes place shortly before Christmas because they were better organised. Not so long ago Mark Cavendish and Bradley Wiggins picked up the title the titles in successive years. Then Chris Froome came on the scene and he struggled when it came to the voting….

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A second Jewish LAB MP who has dared to criticise Team Corbyn on antisemitism faces party discipline

A second Jewish LAB MP who has dared to criticise Team Corbyn on antisemitism faces party discipline

Second MP under investigation in Labour party antisemitism row https://t.co/C0c3V0uiY4 — Guardian politics (@GdnPolitics) July 28, 2018 Meanwhile the latest Tweet that’s doing the rounds We’ve just been sent this post. There’s not much to say, apart from this is what antisemitism looked like in 1930’s Germany. But, it’s 2018 & from a supporter of a mainstream political party. @UKLabour #LabourAntisemitism pic.twitter.com/wjYAQHTnuM — #LabourAntisemitism (@GnasherJew) July 28, 2018 This could play out very badly After disciplinary steps were taken first…

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