Sajid Javid becomes the fifth CON MP to be favourite to succeed TMay since GE2017

July 2nd, 2018

Chart Betdata.io

Rees-Mogg now down to 3rd favourite

There’s been some movement in the Betfair’s next CON leader market following the pulication at the weekend of the latest ConHome survey of party members.

The big news there was that the Home Secretary, Sajid Javid, is now the favoured choice of CON members who partipate in ConHome surveys. This has had a big impact on the betting with Javid now jumping about Gove into the favourite slot.

At least now the betting looks more realistic bearing in mind that the actual members’ ballot is based on the final two in the exhaustive ballots of CON MPs. It always seemed to me as though JRM and BoJo would struggle making the top two in the latter.

So since June 8th 2017 when Mrs May lost the Tories their majority five men have at one stage occupied the favourite slot. First it was Boris, then BrexSec DDavis,followed by a few months of Rees-Mogg who was succeeded by Michael Gove.

What this all suggests is that the old betting adage of always laying the CON leadership favourite probably has merit.

I still think Hunt is a possible with Raab and Truss worth keeping an eye on.

If this week goes as badly for TMay as some of the hard brexiteers hopw then a contest might not be far off.

Mike Smithson