If some of the threats we are hearing are carried out then the cabinet could look very different after the weekend

July 5th, 2018

But who will be next out?

I have a long history of getting bets on the next cabinet exit wrong and of losing a fair bit of money over the years. So I’m reluctant to enter this market at the moment giving all the talk we have been getting today ahead of tomorrow’s critical cabinet meeting at Chequers on the UK’s Brexit policy.

It is one thing to try to suggest that you will go if the cabinet moves in a manner that you disagree with and another thing to actually do it. Resignations on principle are not common.

We’ve also had so many different stories and we now have suggestions that either a group of remain Cabinet ministers or a group of leavers could quit if tomorrow doesn’t fit their own agendas.

In the betting remember that if more than one cabinet minister goes on the same day then the market is settled as a dead heat which could drastically reduce your winnings. Another reason why I’m nervous about risking cash here.

If pressed I think that Theresa May looks set to survive tomorrow with her cabinet largely intact and a fudge on a range of issues to keep all sides on board.

One of the factors of potential candidates for resignation have to take into account is that as soon as they quit they lose their ministerial cars. Somebody quipped on Twitter that the Prime Minister should have rented an old bus and put is outside Chequers with a notice on the side saying “ex ministers backup travel service.”

Anyway a good political day lies ahead.

Mike Smithson