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There signs are that TMay might have to face a confidence motion in the next few days

July 8th, 2018

So far Peston hasn’t moved the PM exit betting

ITV’s Political Editor, Robert Preston, is Tweeting that there might be a confidence move about to take place against TMay.

The system, as we all know, is that the 1922 Chair, Graham Bray, has to initiate an immediate confidence ballot should 15% of CON MPs, 48, write letters to him requesting such a move.

If he gets the letters then we could expect a secret ballot of MPs during the following 24 hours. The PM is speaking to the 1922 Committee of MPs tomorrow evening and further letters could come after that.

The gamble that the “insurgents”, if we can call them that, take is that if the PM survived such a vote then she would be immune from a further challenge for a year. 15% of MPs is not that great compared with the 155 required to ensure that she goes.

    I wonder whether May-loyalists might back the move simply because they think the rebels will fail and the leader’s position would be strengthened.

Meanwhile there’s been no movement in the years of TMay’s exit betting. 2019 remains the favourite.

Mike Smithson