House majority betting moves sharply to the Democrats after 3 bad midwest state polls for Trump/GOP

July 26th, 2018

The three states, Michigan,Minnesota and Wisconsin were surveyed by NBC News/Marist polls and are,of course, in the part of the US where Trump very much exceeded expectations at WH2016.

It was, of course, the mid-west where Trump won the presidency and state polling from here is going to be looked at very closely.

If these do represent represent current opinion then the Republicans are going to struggle in November’s midterm elections when all seats in the House of Representatives are up. They will encourage the Democrats in their effort to win back House something that could impede the Republicans and Trump in the run up to the next White House Race.

The outcome in November is currently the most traded political market on the Betfair exchange and from a position 3 days where the two parties were level-pegging the Republicans have slipped to a 45% chance.

What’s interesting is that these are three different polls in three states yet the overall picture is very much the same.

The Trump approval ratings in such politically sensitive states should be worrying for the White House though there is still a long way to go.

Mike Smithson