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For the first time YouGov finds more supporting a second referendum than opposing

July 27th, 2018

There’s a new YouGov poll in the Times which has 42% wanting a second referendum against 40% who don’t. This is significant because it is the first time that the pollster’s second referendum tracker has found this result and, undoubtedly, will increase the clamour for it to take place.

The exact wording of the tracker question is in the panel in the Tweet above. The party splits finds 58% of LAB voters wanting a new vote, 67% of LD ones with just 21% of Tory voters taking this view.

The change in the mood clearly reflects the ongoing greater uncertainty over what Brexit will involve and increasing talk of “no deal” and the need, possibly to “stockpile” food.

Other pollsters have found backing for a second vote and a lot appears to depend on the wording of the question. What makes YouGov significant is that it is a tracker question so the proposition has been put in the same form and you can monitor response over time.

My view is that given the political deadlock over what Brexit means the second referendum possibility is going to gain even more traction.

The same poll finds that in such a vote 45% would back remain and 42% would back leave.

On voting intention the poll has CON & LAB level-pegging on 38% each with the LDs in double figures on 10%.

Mike Smithson