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Month: July 2018

The efforts to undermine Obamacare – the soft underbelly of Trump’s electoral position

The efforts to undermine Obamacare – the soft underbelly of Trump’s electoral position

Taking away what’s become an entitlement is politically dangerous On the first anniversary of the Senate defeat of Trump’s health care repeal,and just three months before the crucial midterm elections, a new Public Policy Polling survey finds a majority of voters want to support candidates for Congress who oppose repealing the Affordable Care Act. This was brought in under Obama in 2010 and has provided health provision for millions of Americans. By 56% to 40% those sampled said they’d support…

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Amazingly TMay makes it to the long summer recess and she’s still there

Amazingly TMay makes it to the long summer recess and she’s still there

Betdata.io The confidence motion threat was all piss and wind from the Brexiteers Today has been a very important milestone because Parliament has risen for the summer recess and Mrs May is still Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party. Giving the a long time table of a Conservative leadership election it is hard to see how Mrs May can be ousted and for a successor to be in place in 2018. The chances are now that her exit…

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Corbyn’s Brexit speech isn’t going to endear him to large parts of LAB’s voting base

Corbyn’s Brexit speech isn’t going to endear him to large parts of LAB’s voting base

Corbyn is going full Trump: "… a "build it in Britain" speech, in which Mr Corbyn will also attack the use of "cheap labour from abroad" and demand government contracts are kept in Britain instead of being given to "companies outside the UK".https://t.co/Jee3gZ2n3R — David Hirsh (@DavidHirsh) July 24, 2018

The long tail. Looking at the rise of populism

The long tail. Looking at the rise of populism

Here's the polling for the primary populist right party in 15 western European countries from 2005 to June 2018 (part of upcoming paper by @AndrewPGeddes and me). Draw your own conclusions ? pic.twitter.com/1eqS9bF2wr — James Dennison (@JamesRDennison) July 19, 2018 I am one of the 42% @YouGov https://t.co/2Z42Y06TFv pic.twitter.com/9zPH35Skgr — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) July 23, 2018 A spectre is haunting Europe: the spectre of populism. All the powers of old Europe has entered into a holy alliance to exorcise this…

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TMay sees a huge drop in her YouGov leader ratings in three months

TMay sees a huge drop in her YouGov leader ratings in three months

The Brexit splits are costing her and her party dear The chart above sets it out clearly the dramatic collapse that Mrs May has seen in her YouGov Well/Badly leader ratings since the start of April. I’ve been following these ratings for years and cannot recall a fall by such a large amount over such a short period for any leader. Of course she faces a huge challenge and it would be very difficult for any leader to negotiate his…

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Is there life after Brexit?

Is there life after Brexit?

Chou en-Lai is supposed to have said that his assessment of the French Revolution was “It is too early to tell.” Sadly, this appears to have been a misunderstanding, but the agreeably placid sentiment was echoed by Jacob Rees-Mogg this week. Asked if he’d resign if Brexit turned out badly, he said it might take 50 years before the full impact was apparent. Well, that solves the Rees-Mogg resignation issue, but more generally the public seem unlikely to want to…

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