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BoJo is back heading the betting to be next PM

August 3rd, 2018

Only problem is TMay is hanging on with opponents not having the bottle to try to oust her

In a betting move that looks as though it was driven by this week’s ConHome members’ survey which has BoJo on top the ex-mayor and ex-ForeignSec, is now favourite on Betfair to be the next Prime Minister.  He replaces Mr. Corbyn who is having many troubles in his own party over the approach of his team to antisemitism.

In percentage terms being a 14% chance is not really a big deal and over the past year the hottest favourite has never been rated by punters at above 20%.

There is also the long-term “rule” in CON leadership contests that the favourite almost never makes it. Just think of Michael Heseltine, Michael Portillo, David Davis and of course BoJo ahead of the 2016 contest. 

There are, of course, two markets – next PM, as in the chart shown, and next CON leader. The only serious non-CON figure in the former is Mr. Corbyn and I’ve never quite worked out what his pathway would be bar winning a general election. That of course could take place in 2022 when the world could look very different.

After Mrs. May’s disastrous decision to go early in 2017 it hard to see her or a successor doing the same any time soon.

Mathematically Corbyn’s LAB’s influence is declining because it  is shedding MPs, O’Mara and Woodcock for instance. This reduces the number under Corbyn’s command which has never been sufficient to bring down the government even with the support of all the other parties bar the DUP.

There’s also increasing talk at the moment of splinters within the parliamentary party though I’ll believe that only when it happens.

Mike Smithson