Tonight’s special congressional election in Ohio could be a good pointer to November’s mid-terms

August 7th, 2018

There’s a big “special” Congressional election ta1king place in Ohio’s 12th district which was won by the Republicans by 12 points in 2012 and 2016 – the former by Romney and the latter by Trump.

The President has clearly earmarked this as a must hold and has played a key part in the campaign. The signs are that it could be close.

The two final polls suggest that this is a toss-up. Emerson has the Democratic contender 1% ahead while Remington gives it to the Republican by 2 points. Both these are within the margin of error.

We’ve seen in other recent special elections that the Democratic base is very fired up at the moment and there’ve gains by bigger margins than here in Alabama and Pennsylvania. On the end this is about turnout.

My betting rule in toss-up elections is that the option with the longest odds is the value bet. I got on the Democrat with Ladbrokes at 11/10 this morning. That has now tightened to odds-on.

Mike Smithson