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Month: August 2018

An awful amount of excrement has just hit the fan for Trump

An awful amount of excrement has just hit the fan for Trump

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BREAKING: Michael Cohen says he was directed to violate campaign law at the direction of a candidate for federal office https://t.co/kVdINYkpI3 pic.twitter.com/xa4XAexv1V — Bloomberg Politics (@bpolitics) August 21, 2018 Prosecutor says purpose of Michael Cohen's payments was to ensure individuals didn't disclose "alleged affairs with the candidate" https://t.co/PonBO1JIy2 — Bloomberg Politics (@bpolitics) August 21, 2018 Besides the $130,000 payment, Cohen admitted to making an illegal contribution of $150,000, which was how much Karen McDougal got from the National Enquirer’s publisher to quash…

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Mr Johnson’s fate might have been sealed when CON MPs decided to stick with the woman who lost the CON majority at GE2017

Mr Johnson’s fate might have been sealed when CON MPs decided to stick with the woman who lost the CON majority at GE2017

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TMay June 9th 2017 In retrospect this was a huge rebuff to the ex-Mayor If you want to get an idea of the challenges Johnson faces with his fellow CON MPs cast your mind back to those heady two or three days following the last general election when Mrs May looked certain to be replaced. She had made the decision to go to the country early, run a campaign based almost solely on herself and it was her then top…

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The rise of cultural leftism

The rise of cultural leftism

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From ex-LAB MP Nick Palmer Traditionally, the left has always put inequality of income and wealth at the core of its appeal. All the way back to Marx, the argument was that a small number of rich people were rigging the system to benefit themselves, and if you are working-class and on a stagnating income, you need to band together with other working-class people through Labour and the unions to change matters. With middle-class sympathisers, this would potentially make up…

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Voting intention polls – the fools’ gold of predicting elections. Leader ratings do it better

Voting intention polls – the fools’ gold of predicting elections. Leader ratings do it better

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A week before GE17 and TMay’s best PM dominance is crumbling TMay's lead over Corbyn on YouGov "Best PM" tracker has dropped 25 points in past 2 months pic.twitter.com/olqsZ74eSp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 1, 2017 4 days before GE17: few pay attention to Ipsos’s satisfaction numbers Comparing May's lead over Corbyn with @IpsosMORI's net satisfaction ratings compare with Cameron's lead over EdM 1 week before the election pic.twitter.com/Qn8CVeQQUE — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 4, 2017 PB regulars will know that…

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Labour – A Party of Government?

Labour – A Party of Government?

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Assume that in the next 4 years Britain elects Labour led by Corbyn. What governing challenges might it face? We do not know what the world will be like in 2022. But conditions are unlikely to be propitious. With such caveats in mind, here goes. Brexit  Surely we will have exited by then and agreed our trading relationship with the EU? Dream on. The former maybe. The latter unlikely. Even if the broad outlines are visible, there will remain a…

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It might not be his objective but the Arron Banks plan makes TMay’s survival more likely

It might not be his objective but the Arron Banks plan makes TMay’s survival more likely

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For it to work there has to be a vacancy and there isn’t one While LAB has continued its self destructive row on antisemitism the focus has been off the Tories in the past couple of weeks even though the blues are as split as ever over Brexit. Even so TMay might be pleased that all the latest ratings her net figures have her moving up while Corbyn has slipped sharply. Opinium, Deltapoll and YouGov now have her ahead of…

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Campaign-funded YouGov poll points to the LDs getting to within 2 points of LAB if the red team backs Brexit

Campaign-funded YouGov poll points to the LDs getting to within 2 points of LAB if the red team backs Brexit

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New YouGov poll commissioned by an anti-Brexit campaign group points to big electoral price that LAB would pay if continues to back Brexithttps://t.co/2FUSmdTxSr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 19, 2018 But how much can we read into such hypothetical polling? This is from the Guardian report: “A YouGov poll of more than 4,900 people, released to the Guardian on Sunday, put the Conservatives ahead of Labour by four points in a snap election should the latter adopt an anti-Brexit position,…

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Good Queen Tess

Good Queen Tess

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Picture credit: Pulpstar The country is divided into two fiercely-opposed camps. One group wants to free the country completely from European control, completing a process begun under a previous leader, whereas the other group wants to reverse the break from Europe altogether. In parliament the latter group has the majority, but the real levers of power are held – somewhat precariously – by a woman who, nominally at least, favours the break. But does she? There is suspicion amongst the…

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