h1

Some pretty grim polling in London for the Tories, Labour, and Sadiq Khan

September 10th, 2018

Brexit, anti-Semitism, and crime all seem to be having an impact

I think the collapse in the Tory and Lab vote shares is down to a mixture of Brexit not appealing to London and the anti-Semitism issues swirling around Labour.

For me the most interesting aspect has been the collapse in Sadiq Khan’s ratings, albeit he just maintains a net positive rating. The Standard report

Sadiq Khan’s ratings have plunged to their lowest yet after a long summer of violent crime.

The Mayor has fallen behind among key target groups including the over-Fifties, working-class voters, white people and the outer London “doughnut”.

Overall, Mr Khan’s ratings have slipped from +22 in May this year down to +4 today, according to the YouGov study commissioned by Queen Mary University of London.

It revealed that both Labour and the Conservatives have slumped in popularity in London over the summer, with the Tories falling to a dismal vote share of barely one voter in four. And former Ukip leader Nigel Farage, who has hinted at running in the 2020 mayoral contest, is overwhelmingly rejected by Londoners.

Professor Philip Cowley, of Queen Mary’s Mile End Institute, said: “Sadiq Khan has suffered a noticeable hit in his ratings, down from being the most popular politician in Britain just 18 months ago, to being ahead but not by much.

“The 2020 contest is looking a lot more interesting now than it did even before this summer. Justine Greening and other big Tory beasts might now regret their decision not to have a tilt at him.” Key details of the survey include:

Londoners are divided over Mr Khan’s record. Overall, 44 per cent say he is doing well, while 40 per cent say he is doing badly. That is a major change since May when the figures were 52 per cent well, 30 per cent badly.

It is even more pronounced compared with March 2017 when his ratings were 58 per cent positive and 23 per cent negative.

Several key voter groups have turned against Mr Khan. He remains hugely popular among younger voters but now people in the 50-64 age group give him a negative rating of -5.

While Mr Khan was previously ahead among all ethnic groups, now white Londoners rate him at -5, while among black and minority ethnic Londoners he is ahead by +21.

Mr Khan has slipped among the C2DE social class, where he is seen as doing badly by 46 per cent and well by 39, a net -7. He is backed in the wealthier ABC1 social class, with 48 per cent rating him as doing well and 35 badly.

Voters in the big outer London ring now say Mr Khan is doing badly by 44 to 39 per cent, while inner Londoners say he is doing well by 49-35.

So whoever is the Tory candidate there’s potential for them to do well, although after the year Khan’s had that he still has positive ratings might indicate a certain Teflon like qualities that Khan possesses.

I suspect demographics, Brexit, and the fact the next Mayoral election will take place after a decade of Tory or Tory led governments, which will make it sub-optimal for any Tory candidate.

But Sadiq Khan winning in 2020 isn’t the slam dunk many think it is, especially if the crime rates deteriorate further.

TSE