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Labour’s gains in Scotland were mostly down to the SNP misplacing nearly half a million voters, not because of some great love for Corbyn.

September 11th, 2018

Analysing the Corbyn ‘surge’ in Scotland

One of the most profitable areas of general election betting in recent elections has been in Scotland, where backing the 2015 SNP tsunami was very profitable as was my 20/1 tip to back the Tories to get over 9.5 seats in 2017.  I expect the next general election might present similar opportunities, assuming Scotland hasn’t seceded by then, so it is worth looking at the last election to see if we can spot anything.

Just look at the chart in the tweet above, whilst the SNP lost nearly half a million votes since the 2015 general election Labour only gained fewer than 10,000. To put that in context, for every 48 voters the SNP lost Labour gained only 1 voter. For every 3 voters Labour gained the Scottish Tories gained nearly 100 voters. Labour’s gains were pretty much reliant on SNP losing voters.

If we look at the increases/decreases in the seven Labour Scottish gains we can see two were gained whilst Labour made a net loss of voters. Amusingly 7,000 of the near 10,000 votes Labour gained in Scotland came in Edinburgh South, the seat they already held, where Ian Murray the MP is someone who is very critical of Jeremy Corbyn.

After the huge, near comedic swings and wins from third place we’ve seen in Scotland at recent elections, and with so many known unknowns to come, only the Heir to the Throne of the Kingdom of Idiots could confidently predict the outcome of the next general election in Scotland.

If Labour’s strategy to make further gains in Scotland is to rely in major falls in the support of other parties then that might be a flawed approach.

Hat-tip to PBer TheUnionDivvie for making me aware of these figures.

TSE