The betting chances of LAB winning the next election edge down to the lowest level since GE2017

September 26th, 2018


Given that one of the ongoing themes of Labour’s conference has been the hope that there can be another GE soon I thought it might be useful to look for the first time at next general election betting. By the time we get to polling day – sometime between now and May 2022 – this market will see a large amount of activity. The only reason to be betting now is if you think the odds on your selection will tighten.

I don’t think there’s value in either price.

For all the problems within the Conservative Party those gambling on the outcome of the next election are putting their money on the blues to win most seats.

Corbyn supporters, no doubt, will remember how poorly the party was rated ahead of the last election and are hoping that with the increased coverage that a general election campaign gives that they could do a repeat of 2017.

Maybe they could but I always think you should not look at the next contest through the prism of the last one. A big reason reason at the general perception last year was the perception that the Tories were going to come in with a big majority – an element that was driven by the pollsters understatement of the Tories two years earlier.

I don’t bet at this stage because you could be locking up your cash for several years.

Mike Smithson