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PB Video Analysis: Demographics Two. The Big Drag

September 28th, 2018


In my last demographics piece, I looked at the boost developed countries got from falling fertility freeing up females from childcare duties. (I adore alliteration.) This piece looks to the recent past, to the experience of Japan, and asks what next?

And the picture isn’t, if we’re going to be honest, a pretty one. Rising life expectancy, and birth rates below replacement almost everywhere mean that population pyramids will continue to invert. Old people produce less economic output than young ones. And they require more healthcare and expensive pensions.

This is not good for economic growth. And intergenerational squabbles will increasingly become a feature of our politics. It’s always harder to distribute losses than to share gains.

But, hey, at least it probably means lower house prices.

Robert Smithson

Robert tweets as ‘@MarketWarbles’